A couple years ago, I speculated about eventual free trade in marijuana. That was before legalization in Colorado and Washington state. The case for trade and globalization of this industry looks stronger now.
The Economist had a good article recently, taking into account this legalization, and thinking about what the future of the industry looks like. Right now, it’s just a bunch of small companies searching for the right market strategy, but they see consolidation eventually:
As happened with alcohol after the end of Prohibition, and has also happened with tobacco, the pot industry would probably come to be dominated by a few giant corporations.
They note that the tobacco industry has looked into the marijuana sector in the past, and might be well-positioned to run things, although it really could be anyone.
Assuming the current trend of increased acceptance continues, it seems inevitable that the marijuana industry will begin to look like other industries. There will be a few major global players, possibly based in the countries where legalization first happened. There will also be trade and investment disputes, just as there are in industries such as steel, cotton, and aircraft. No doubt the industry will be highly regulated, and regulations often given rise to these complaints.
For example, as the article notes, “Both Colorado and Washington have imposed residency requirements on the owners of marijuana businesses—including anyone with an equity stake.” Why restrict investments from foreigners and others who are not residents of the jurisdiction? No doubt the regulators have some rationale for this, but whether it’s a good one or complies with the various international investment obligations that are now in effect is up for debate.