Archives: 02/2018

Air Pollution Regulation and Grandfathering

A recent New York Times article discusses an exemption for heavy-duty diesel truck emissions standards. First enacted by the Clinton administration, the standards include a provision that exempts truck engines built before 1999. Some entrepreneurs are taking advantage of this provision to circumvent the regulations by installing rebuilt pre-1999 engines in new truck bodies. According to the article, the rebuilt trucks sell for at least 10 percent less than compliant new trucks and also cost less to operate.

The focus of the article is the lobbying directed towards maintaining the exemption, but I want to focus on the real underlying problem: the exemption of existing sources from more stringent emission standards, also called grandfathering. If emissions and degraded ambient air quality have negative effects on morbidity and mortality, then those effects occur regardless of whether the emissions come from “existing” or “new” sources. So there is no public health or scientific rationale for grandfathering. Emissions are emissions regardless of their origin.

Instead, grandfathering eliminates the expense of retrofitting or scrapping existing durable equipment and imposes the cost of compliance gradually. This reduces the explicit cost of compliance and thus limits political opposition to emission control.

The downside of grandfathering is that it incentivizes the retention and operation of old equipment. In the cover story of the spring 2006 issue of Regulation, Shi-Ling Hsu describes the thirty-year struggle over the imposition of emission controls on coal-fired electricity power plants. When the Clean Air Act was amended by Congress in 1977, existing plants were exempted from the pollution control measures that were required of new power plants. Ever since, much ink has been spilled, and large legal fees and campaign and lobbying expenditures have been spent in the struggle over whether emission controls would ever be imposed on such plants because the right to emit without controls is very valuable.

How Will The Supreme Court Rule on Partisan Gerrymandering?

Ballotpedia asked five redistricting buffs to comment on how the Supreme Court might rule on the two gerrymandering cases it is considering, Gill v. Whitford from Wisconsin and Benisek v. Lamone from Maryland. My response

One clue is timing. Rather than fast-track consideration of Benisek v. Lamone, the Court instead set an oral argument date of March 28. That leisurely pace ensures that any decision will come late enough in the term to wreak havoc on this year’s [election] cycle if it announces the imposition at once of a new constitutional standard. Few if any Justices wish to wreak such havoc avoidably. From which I deduce that the Court either 1.) does not expect to announce a new standard, or 2.) expects to do so only in a staged or prospective way that allows states time for compliance or kicks in with the next Census cycle.

While I believe Justice Kennedy remains open to the development of some constitutional standard in this area, I also think he is looking for a fix that is objective and mechanical enough that 1.) it yields the same results from state to state and from Republican-appointed as from Democratic-appointed lower court judges, and 2.) the clarity of what it calls for and how to comply cuts off a need for continual massive litigation and judicial supervision (compare here the success of the one-person, one-vote revolution). Kennedy’s having joined with the conservatives to stay the Gill ruling leaves me thinking that as of then he wasn’t convinced that the “efficiency gap” standard fit that demanding bill.

I’m also pleased to note that my essay on gerrymandering from a libertarian/classical liberal perspective, which appeared originally in Cato Unbound, is featured in the latest Cato Policy Report. You can read it here

Are Mass Shootings Becoming More Frequent?

Terrible mass shootings like the one at a Parkland, Florida high school are so shocking that it is easy to get the impression that mass shootings are increasingly common.  The number of deaths from mass shootings has been unusually high since 2007, because of five horrific incidents – Las Vegas (58), the Orlando nightclub (49), Virginia Tech (32), Sandy Hook (27), and the Texas First Baptist Church (26).  Statisticians would never try to fabricate a trend from such a small sample, even though the untrained eye may want to.

Last November, however, a Wall Street Journal essay by Ari Schulman claimed,

It isn’t your imagination: Mass shootings are getting deadlier and more frequent. A recent FBI report on “active shooters” from 2000 to 2015 found that the number of incidents more than doubled from the first to the second half of the period. Four of the five deadliest shootings in American history happened in the past five years, and 2017 already far exceeds any previous year for the number of casualties.

That FBI report “identified 160 active shooter incidents that occurred in the United States between 2000 and 2013,” with 486 people killed. The authors literally drew a straight line between just one incident in 2000 (after many in 1999) and 13 incidents in 2013, and called that a “rising trend.”

DHS Uses Hyperbole, Half-Truths, & Inaccuracies to Influence Senate Vote on Rounds-Collins Dreamer Amendment

The Senate is currently debating many competing proposals that would legalize some Dreamers, enhance border security, and reform legal immigration.  This morning, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a press release criticizing the bipartisan Rounds-Collins proposal that has more support in the Senate than any other amendment.  This DHS press release was accompanied by a veto threat from President Trump.  Most of DHS’ talking points against Rounds-Collins are either hyperbolic, half-truths, or just inaccurate.  Below, I will respond to the three most egregious sections of the DHS press release.

 

By halting immigration enforcement for all aliens who will arrive before June 2018, it ignores the lessons of 9/11 and significantly increases the risk of crime and terrorism.

 

There have been nine terrorists who entered the United States illegally since 1975 who went on to plan or commit an attack on U.S. soil.  One of them, Glen Cusford Francis, managed to kill one person in an assassination on U.S. soil.  That’s one successful murder in a terrorist attack over 43 years, committed by one of the roughly 49 million illegal immigrants who entered during that period (most left the United States).  The annual chance of being murdered by an immigrant who entered illegally was about 1 in 11.6 billion per year during that time.

Marijuana Research Catch 22

George Hodgin’s mission seemed simple: manufacture uncontaminated, chemically consistent cannabis for use in scientific research on marijuana’s medical effects, all while complying with federal regulations surrounding the production of a drug still classified by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) as highly dangerous. Despite new rules the DEA promulgated eighteen months ago, with the stated goal of allowing expanded cultivation of marijuana for scientific research, George Hodgin is still in administrative limbo. 

Hodgin, a former Navy SEAL, approached us recently for advice after encountering numerous regulatory roadblocks.  We have no special knowledge or ability in that direction; but perhaps publicizing his endeavors will nudge public opinion (and regulators) in the right direction. 

Expanding research access to high-quality marijuana is important. The Marijuana Policy Project estimates that roughly 2.5 million patients use medical marijuana – just in states with legal medical marijuana programs. This number is likely an underestimate, as it does not account for individuals obtaining marijuana for medical use through non-medical channels. Marijuana’s illegality at the federal level prevents the collection of much needed data that could help drive future research.

Veterans represent a particularly important category of medical marijuana users. Although Veterans Health Administration physicians are prohibited by federal law from recommending medical marijuana, new guidelines issued in December 2017 revise existing standards to encourage doctors and patients to discuss the use of medical marijuana without fear of recrimination. 

GOP Plan Gives a Citizenship Path to Only Half of Trump’s 1.8 Million

Seven GOP Senators have proposed a plan that they claim would fulfill a pledge by President Trump to provide permanent residence (a pathway to citizenship) to 1.8 million young immigrant Dreamers. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) appeared to go further than a mere “pathway” alone, claiming that it would actually provide citizenship itself to 1.8 million. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) made the same claim, stating that he expects “1.8 million [to] go through naturalization.”

In reality, only an estimated 877,100 people would receive permanent residence under the White House-Senate GOP plan – and only approximately 587,650 should be expected to receive U.S. citizenship. A realistic number of those who may benefit from the White House plan, as embodied in a GOP Senate bill, is important because supporters have used the 1.8 million figure to justify large-scale reductions in the number of legal immigrants entering the country – potentially 22 million fewer legal immigrants over 50 years.

The 1.8 million figure is fiction. Based on the experience of prior documentation efforts and the specifics of this particular proposal, the GOP senators’ Secure and Succeed Act would provide an initial status to about 1.1 million. But of them, only about 877,100 would likely receive permanent residence, sometimes called a “pathway to citizenship,” and only about 587,650 would likely end up receiving citizenship. Table 1 provides the actual enrollment rates and extension rates for DACA compared to estimates for the Secure and Succeed (S&S) Act.

Table 1

Sources: Authors’ calculations based on Migration Policy Institute (DACA Eligibility); Migration Policy Institute (S&S Eligibility, LPR Rates); Pew Research Center (Naturalization rate); U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (DACA Enrollees; DACA Extensions); S&S Initial Enrollment Rates Based on Congressional Budget Office. *An individual cannot apply for citizenship from DACA.

U.S. Charter Schools Produce a Bigger Bang with Fewer Bucks

The evidence is in. And it’s great news for kids in charter schools. A just-released study by my colleagues at the University of Arkansas and me finds that, overall, public charter schools across eight major U.S. cities are 35 percent more cost-effective and produce a 53 percent higher return-on-investment (ROI) than residentially assigned government schools.

And every single one of the cities examined exhibited a charter school productivity advantage over their district school counterparts. As shown in Figure 1 below, charter schools outperformed district schools in each city on student achievement despite receiving significantly less resources per student. Charter schools in all eight cities studied are getting more bang for the buck. And in places like D.C. and Indianapolis, charter schools are doing more with a lot less.

Figure 1: Charter School Funding and Performance

Our ROI models consider the effect that each schooling sector has on children’s lifetime earnings relative to the total taxpayer investment for children’s K-12 education in each sector. As shown in Figure 2 below, charter schools provide a huge ROI for taxpayers. And D.C. charter schools are knocking it out of the park by producing an 85 percent higher ROI for their taxpayers than district schools.

Let’s make this a bit more concrete. The data show that every thousand dollars spent on education in D.C. district schools translates to around a $4,510 increase in students’ lifetime earnings. That is commendable. But that same thousand-dollar-expenditure produces an estimated $8,340 in students’ lifetime earnings if allocated to a public charter school in the city. And that 85 percent advantage is huge considering that taxpayers spend over $458,000 for each child’s K-12 education in D.C. district schools.

Figure 2: ROI for Charter Schools Relative to TPS (13 Years)

Notably, charter schools in Boston and Indianapolis both produced ROIs that were over 60 percent higher than their neighboring district schools. New York City, San Antonio, and Denver all produced ROIs that were 29 to 32 percent higher than district schools.

But these results shouldn’t surprise anyone. When educational institutions have the incentive to spend money wisely, they do just that. Because residentially assigned government schools do not have to attract their customers, they can spend tons of money on administration and fancy buildings. On the other hand, charter schools must spend money on kids – rather than administrators – if they want to keep their doors open.