Trump’s victory in the Presidential election is a tremendous political upset. The biggest issue raised by Trump was immigration—and he didn’t waver from his restrictionist position. Although the polling data doesn’t show support for Trump’s position and the election was not a blowout, depending on whether he wins the popular vote (unclear at this time) he and other restrictionist Republicans will take this as a mandate to follow through on his immigration promises.
Trump's stump speeches were superficial but his immigration position paper was detailed and specific. Simply, it calls for a 20 percent to 60 percent cut in green cards and a huge increase in immigration enforcement. Here are the details from his immigration position paper fleshed out:
As I write, the presidential race has just been called by the media: barring fantastical litigation, Donald Trump will be moving into the White House. But even if he had fallen just short, it's no understatement to say that Trump shocked the nation and the world—or at least the elites (conservative, progressive, libertarian, and every other kind). Pollsters are eating crow, as are political campaign professionals. I'm not either of those, but here's my first stab at sketching an explanation for what we just witnessed.
Here are five reasons behind the Trump phenomenon, in no particular order and using purely qualitative analysis:
- Hillbilly Elegy – J.D. Vance's book touched a nerve in the political culture by capturing the zeitgeist regarding the plight of the white working class, particularly in Appalachia. This phenomenon will be a source of many sociology dissertations in coming years.
- Shy Trump Voters – Just like the "shy Tories" who reelected David Cameron and the "shy Brexiteers" who voted the U.K. out of the E.U., many people didn't want to tell pollsters that they planned to vote Trump, or simply declined to be polled.
- Hollywood and General Progressive Smugness – People don't like being condescended to. I missed my chance to write an op-ed citing schadenfreude as the best reason to vote Trump, but maybe now I'll get to do it as a silver-linings piece.
- Celebrity – Down-ballot GOP primary challengers tried to use Trump's schtick and they failed. A majority/plurality of Republicans reject much of what specific policies Trump has offered. Yet The Donald has such name recognition, such a brand, that he pulled it off. We can expect many more celebrities entering the political arena in future.
- An Opponent Who Is a Truly Horrible Candidate – Hillary Clinton was no Democrat's dream candidate (even the ultra-feminists would've preferred someone who hadn't already been first lady) and she ran a campaign devoid of meaning—apart from the very identity politics that proved to be her undoing. She's like Martha Coakley, the former Massachusetts attorney general who somehow managed to lose "Ted Kennedy's" Senate seat.
As we all ponder the election, I welcome suggestions for refinement of and additions to these theories.
One clear message from yesterday's election is that many voters—and many others who stayed home from the polls—were underwhelmed by the major-party candidates for president. Several factors conspired to deliver the Democratic and Republican nominations to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. One of those factors that sorely needs to be reformed before the next election cycle is the lousy format used for candidate debates.
Typically, candidates are given scarcely a minute or two to answer moderators' questions about complex policy issues, and even less time to rebut an opponent or offer a response. Candidates aren’t given the debate questions ahead of time, and though they have some idea of what they might be asked, they can’t prepare and deliver careful, detailed responses. The candidates aren't permitted notes or electronic devices, so they can’t quickly reaffirm facts or double-check complex arguments. And they can’t use visual aids to help explain their ideas or provide full references.
These limitations punish candidates who are thoughtful, have nuanced policy knowledge, offer innovative ideas, and who want to communicate with and persuade a broad, diverse audience. The limitations favor candidates with little knowledge or concern for facts, who spout standard ideologies, who play to partisan bases, and who are dishonest and incivil.
If the coordinators of the 2020 debates truly want to provide a public service, they will dispense with the current format and instead provide candidates an opportunity to show if they are informed, pensive, respectful leaders who can talk to Americans about sophisticated public policy. If, on the other hand, these coordinators continue using the same debate formats as 2016, we will likely have party nominees similar to 2016's.
No matter who wins this year's presidential election, believers in monetary freedom will have their work cut out for them.
A newly-elected president Trump will quickly turn from making the Fed a scapegoat for his own campaigns' tribulations to blaming it for his economic policy failures — starting with the equities market nose dive that's likely to follow his surprise victory. But instead of continuing to rail against the Fed's supposedly easy policy stance, you can bet that president-elect Trump would soon be blaming it for keeping money too tight.
In any event, a newly-elected Trump administration, through its unveiled hostility toward the Fed, could not fail to make that already "political" institution even more so, for the Fed knows very well that, if it wants to preserve its vaunted independence, it had better heed the administrations' wishes. That's what former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin, who understood the true nature of the Fed's independence better than anyone, meant when he explained that the Fed was independent, not "from," but "within," the government.
And if it doesn't? Then at the very least we can expect President Trump to make life very unpleasant for Chair Yellen, in the hope of making her resign before the end of her term in January 2018. And even if she resists, we can expect to have a Trump-appointed Fed chair in place for at least half of his term. If you think that might be an improvement, then presumably you believe that Trump is a better judge of monetary policy experts than he is of economic policy experts generally.
In any event, it is another Clinton presidency that champions of monetary freedom are most likely to have to contend with. And what will that mean? Although the Fed would be bound to accommodate her own administration's wishes to some extent, Clinton's championing of Fed independence during her campaign would at least make it necessary for her administration to proceed relatively gingerly in trying to sway its conduct. But while the Clinton administration is unlikely to influence Fed policy directly, it can be expected to do so indirectly, in the name of "diversity."
The economic plight of low-skilled workers has received considerable attention during the presidential campaign. The problem is older than the primary season however, as the share of prime-age U.S. workers without a high school degree with jobs has been declining for decades. Yet at the same time, low-skilled immigrant men have been unaffected by this trend. While some commentators have attempted to blame the failure of native-born men to work on immigrants, the evidence points to other causes.
This post will expand on the lessons from Nicholas Eberstadt’s wonderful new book Men Without Work to give five reasons why low-skilled men who have immigrated to the United States tend to work more often than similarly educated men who were born here.
Figure 1 highlights the problem. For as far back as we have data, immigrant men without high school degrees in their prime years (25-54) have held jobs far more often than similar native-born men. Moreover, the gap in employment between the average low-skilled immigrant man and the similar native-born man is growing. In 1995, there was an 18 percentage point difference in the employment rates of the two groups. By 2014, the difference was 31 points.
Read the rest of this post »
Don B. Kates, a pioneer in the revival of the Second Amendment, has died at 75. Eugene Volokh writes in the Washington Post that
Don wrote “Handgun Prohibition and the Original Meaning of the Second Amendment,” 82 Mich. L. Rev. 204 (1983), the first modern article in a major law review arguing for the individual-rights view of the Second Amendment, and since then he wrote or co-wrote over 15 more law review articles, as well as writing, co-writing or editing four books. His work has been heavily cited both by courts and by scholars.
His writing career may have begun with Inquiry magazine, published in the 1970s by the Cato Institute. His article "Handgun Control: Prohibition Revisited" appeared in Inquiry's second issue, December 5, 1977. For some reason that piece appears to have been excerpted in the Washington Post three years later.
Libertarian movement historian Brian Doherty expands on his seminal influence:
As explained in an excellent 2014 essay on Kates' contributions to modern Second Amendment thought by California-based gun law scholar C.D. Michel, "Kates was a nearly lone voice in the constitutional law wilderness....Kates' work, both as a constitutional scholar and criminologist....largely ignited the counter revolution against the American gun control movement" by arguing and demonstrating that the Amendment was certainly intended to protect an individual right to possess weapons.
Kates' article became an ur-source to later articles by more academically well-connected authors, such as Sanford Levinson's 1989 Yale Law Review article "The Embarrassing Second Amendment," that spread the new understanding of that Amendment as guaranteeing an individual right to the more liberal side of legal academia.
As Michel notes, "All the scholarship that Kates indirectly ignited eventually fueled legal briefs filed before the Supreme Court in District of Columbia v. Heller."
According to Wikipedia, Kates grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area and later attended Reed College and Yale Law School. During the Civil rights movement, he worked in the South for civil rights lawyers including William Kunstler, an experience that informed his understanding of the need for armed self-defense. After three years of teaching constitutional law, criminal law, and criminal procedure at Saint Louis University School of Law, he returned to San Francisco where he practiced law and began writing on criminology and guns. Dave Kopel has more on his background and influence here.
Watch Don Kates talk about gun control in this 1989 speech at Libertarianism.org.
The prospect of Donald Trump as president is only slightly less ridiculous than the idea of Charlie Sheen with nukes—and possibly more frightening. And yet, it looks as though the verbally incontinent celebreality billionaire has a one in three chance of being elected come Tuesday.
Terrifying, yes, but fear can be useful. In this case, it ought to concentrate the mind wonderfully: if someone so manifestly unfit, so transparently likely to abuse power, can come within striking distance of the presidency, then maybe it was a bad idea to concentrate so much power in the Oval Office in the first place.
It's no secret that the “most powerful office in the world” grew even more powerful in the Bush-Obama years. Both presidents stretched the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force into a wholesale delegation of congressional war powers broad enough to underwrite open-ended, globe-spanning war. Bush began—and Obama continued—the host of secret dragnet surveillance programs revealed by Edward Snowden—and others we’re still largely the dark about. And lately, on the home front, Obama has used the power of the pen to rewrite broad swathes of American law and spend billions of dollars Congress never appropriated.
America’s center-left papers of record have lately begun to notice that the vast powers recent presidents have forged would be available to Trump as well. The New York Times’s Carl Hulse writes that Obama’s assertion of a presidential power of the purse could have ”huge consequences for our constitutional democracy.... How would lawmakers react if a willful new chief executive, unable to win money from Congress for a wall on the Mexican border, simply shifted $7 billion from another account and built it anyway?” And a month ago, the Washington Post kicked off a series of half a dozen editorials warning what would befall the republic should Trump ascend to Real Ultimate Power: “A President Trump could, unilaterally, change this country to its core,” the Post’s editorialists argued, and the other branches won’t be able to stop him: “in the U.S. System, the scope for executive action is, as we will lay out in a series of editorials next week, astonishingly broad.”
It was nice to see the Post editorial board, which had called Obama’s recess-appointments gambit “a justifiable power grab,” evince some concern about potential abuses of executive power. Through five more editorials, they’d go on to observe that a President Trump could, among other abuses: “launch wars”; “take the oil”; “assassinate foreigners who opposed him”; issue a secret legal opinion overturning the torture ban; “launch surveillance programs targeting foreigners without informing Congress”; pull out of NAFTA, start a trade war, and “destroy the world economy.” An imposing parade of horribles, all leading up to the limpest of takeaways: “the nation should not subject itself to such a risk." In other words, don’t vote for Trump. OK, then: Problem solved?