Malou Innocent (Author at The Cato Institute)

Cato Scholar Comments on the Terrorist Attacks in Mumbai (Scholar Comments)

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:00:00 EST

It remains to be seen whether Pakistan, either as part of a deliberate government policy or through rogue elements operating independent of the state, had a direct role in the recent attacks by the Al Qaeda-affiliated group Laskar-e-Taiba. While an Indian military response is not a foregone conclusion, any armed conflict between India and Pakistan would have disastrous implications.

The most pressing concern is that any hint of military mobilization by the Indians will give Pakistan an excuse to shift forces away from its western tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and to its eastern border, as Pakistan did in 2002 after its chief intelligence agency allegedly backed an assault by another jihadist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, against the Indian Parliament in New Delhi in December 2001.

Not only would a war between the nuclear-armed powers plunge the region into greater instability, it would undermine Pakistan's campaign against Islamic extremists in its own country, further complicate U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, and dampen India's rapid economic growth.

Obama Must Tread Warily in Afghanistan (Commentary)

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:00:00 EST

US president-elect Barack Obama said on Sunday, on 60 Minutes, that capturing or killing Osama bin Laden will be his top priority. He made similar commitments on the campaign trail, as when he insisted that, if given actionable intelligence, he would go after al-Qaeda hiding in the hills between Afg...

Cato Scholar Comments on Peace Talks with the Taliban (Scholar Comments)

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:00:00 EST

The Afghan government, the White House, and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) are currently reviewing a new approach to peel Pashtun tribes in southern and eastern Afghanistan away from hardcore elements of the Taliban. Engagement may prove discouraging. Not only has the Taliban rejected peace talks until foreign troops withdraw from the country, but dialogue with rank and file pro-Taliban insurgents may have no impact on the senior leadership's decision to renounce violence or stop recruiting. Certainly there are risks to engaging jihadist militants, but if President Bush and the incoming Obama administration want to neutralize the insurgency in Afghanistan and western Pakistan, they must direct CENTCOM to implement some of the proven counterinsurgency techniques introduced in the Al Anbar province of Iraq during the summer of 2007. We will have to buy off tribal loyalties, work on the ground and develop relationships with tribal leaders, establish legitimacy with the local population by employing the minimal use of force. So long as U.S. and NATO forces are in Afghanistan, they cannot afford to overlook the Pashtun tribes who have a stronger allegiance to their ethnic clans, sub-clans and extended families, than to a strong central state governed from Kabul.

Cato Scholar Comments on Obama's Foreign Policy Priorities (Scholar Comments)

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:00 EST

Much to his credit, President-elect Barack Obama has made clear that Afghanistan and Pakistan will be his top foreign policy focus. During the primary season, Obama said that if given actionable intelligence he would go after al Qaeda hiding in the hills between Afghanistan and Pakistan. He also pledged to redeploy troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. This shift in focus is a step in the right direction. But Obama should be cautious about throwing more troops at the problem. A heavier combat presence may plunge America and NATO into a deeper and bloodier guerrilla campaign, while U.S. air strikes in Pakistan have proven unhelpful. Obama's warm reception overseas suggests he might be successful in pressing reluctant allies to share more of the burden. But given the historical and cultural complexities of this turbulent region, even subtle shifts, if they are unwise, can intensify Afghanistan and Pakistan's downward spiral.

Questionable Deals in a Volatile Region (Commentary)

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistan secured China's help to build two new nuclear power reactors in mid-October, though China declined to commit to helping bolster Pakistan's dwindling foreign exchange reserves. It seems no coincidence that this nuclear deal comes just a few weeks after the ratification of the long-stalled US...

Cato Scholar Comments on Pakistan's War against the Taliban (Scholar Comments)

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Despite Pakistan losing thousands of soldiers in confrontations with insurgents, U.S. policymakers insist Islamabad is not doing enough to combat terrorism. Just recently, however, Pakistan decided to arm anti-Taliban tribes to tackle the Taliban insurgency. This latest gambit, not directly funded by the United States, is modeled after the 'Awakening' movement that took place in Iraq. Such an endeavor could easily backfire, contributing to more violence in Pakistan's northern areas. Desperate times call for desperate measures, but rather than throw America's ally under the bus, deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Patrick Moon should offer a proper official statement on Pakistan's latest effort to fight the spreading Islamic insurgency.

Cato Scholar Comments on the Latest Attacks in Pakistan (Scholar Comments)

Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:00:00 EDT

The explosion at Islamabad's Marriott Hotel late Saturday, which senior intelligence officials say bore the hallmarks of Pakistani Taliban or al Qaeda, is the latest incident in a growing Islamist insurgency that marks an overall deterioration in America's global counterterrorism policy. This erosion was further confirmed on Sunday when Pakistani troops opened fire on two U.S. military helicopters, forcing them to turn back to Afghanistan. It came after President Bush authorized U.S. forces to infiltrate terrorist safe havens in Pakistan's unpoliced tribal region, which militants use to sabotage U.S.-led NATO operations in neighboring Afghanistan. The critical issue now facing the United States and its European allies is how to neutralize threats emanating from Pakistan's tribal region, because success on that front is crucial for the U.S.-NATO mission to succeed. The best available option is a concerted military campaign and a political effort to wean away tribal leaders who are now inclined to support those extremist movements. But that requires U.S., NATO, and Pakistani officials to establish an agreement on how to cooperatively eradicate its terrorist sanctuaries.

America's Toxic Embrace in Pakistan (Daily Podcast)

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Cato Scholar Comments on U.S. Raids in Pakistan (Scholar Comments)

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Permitting American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) will be tricky, but is a much better alternative than unilateral missile strikes. Highly-trained U.S. forces can root out militant safe havens and deny insurgents a base from which to attack U.S.-led NATO operations in neighboring Afghanistan. But as Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani said recently, "There are no quick fixes in this war. Falling for short-term gains while ignoring our long-term interest is not the right way forward." In this respect, Washington must recognize that stabilizing an area equivalent in size to Vermont, largely absent of government authority, and notoriously resistant to outsiders will be daunting and require years of patience and flexibility. Moreover, because incursions onto Pakistani territory undermine the legitimacy of Pakistani officials, such operations should be coordinated with Pakistan's military and civilian leaders.

Malou Innocent discusses unrest in Pakistan. (Weekly Video)

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Malou Innocent discusses Pakistan with Vago Muradian on This Week in Defense News on Sept. 7, 2008.

Fixing Relations in Pakistan (Daily Podcast)

Fri, 29 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistan in Turmoil (Daily Podcast)

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Musharraf Has Gone, but Is Civilian Rule Better? (Commentary)

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

As expected, Pervez Musharraf has resigned rather than face impeachment as president of Pakistan. But, despite the widespread sense that the retired army general drastically eroded the public trust while in office, there is growing doubt that a civilian government is any better equipped to improve P...

Cato Scholar Comments on the Pakistani Government’s Conflict Over the Reinstating of Judges (Scholar Comments)

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

While the judge issue continues to dominate the civilian government's attention, the militant Islamist insurgency continues to spread along Pakistan's western frontier with Afghanistan, a development that slowly threatens the integrity of Pakistan itself. The only way Islamabad can counteract the radicalism is to focus on increasing, rather than reducing, the footprint of the Pakistani Army in the tribal areas. Until then, domestic power struggles and ceaseless political infighting will continue to overshadow a menace more sinister than mere legislative rivals.

John McCain's Foreign Policy Judgment Is Questionable (Commentary)

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

A major theme of John McCain's campaign is that he has far more experience in foreign affairs than does Barack Obama. McCain has now escalated his attacks by targeting Obama's judgment as well — especially the latter's pessimism about the effectiveness of the surge in Iraq. There is little doubt ...

Cato Scholar Comments on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's Resignation (Scholar Comments)

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's resignation is an important development with unpredictable implications. Those people who hope that Pakistan's turbulent politics will disappear along with Musharraf are likely to be disappointed. Pakistan's political class has been a revolving door of military and civilian leaders for most of its 60-year history. Exacerbating that country's political and constitutional roller coaster has been numerous American administrations, both during the Cold War and the so-called 'War on Terror,' which continually sought the assistance of Pakistani army generals even at the cost of that country's rule of law. After Musharraf, it is important for leaders in Washington to understand that America's heavy reliance on Pakistani military leaders is a policy not passively accepted by the majority of Pakistan's population. Perhaps the next administration can learn from President Bush's mistakes and begin to step away from the belief that a particular leader can serve as the linchpin in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Cato Scholar Comments on Pakistani President Musharraf's Expected Resignation (Scholar Comments)

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

[D]espite the widespread sense that [President Musharraf] has drastically eroded the public trust, there is growing doubt that a civilian government is any better equipped to improve Pakistan's shaken economy and fragile rule of law.

In the looting and lawlessness that followed last December's assassination of opposition politician Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis went to the polls and voted out Musharraf's ruling party, and voted in civilian leaders of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by Asif Ali Zardari, and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. As luck would have it, immediately after civilians came to power the country experienced a precipitous economic downturn. Now, there is a growing consensus among some of Pakistan's business elite that the army should be back in power.

Cato Scholar Comments on Pakistan Moving to Impeach Musharraf (Scholar Comments)

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf tried to throw a wrench in the ruling coalition's plan to impeach him by re-appointing eight deposed judges of the Sindh High Court. Until now, Musharraf and PPP co-chairman Asif Zardari have had a personal agreement not to reinstate the judges. But the ruling coalition's recent push for impeachment prompted Musharraf to make concessions by reinstating some of the judges. This move may well divide the lawyers' movement, and place Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif in a very tenuous position. While Musharraf's future remains uncertain, America's policy in the region will most likely remain intact due to the support it receives from the Chief of Army Staff, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, who seems to be backing the present policy of the Unites States and Musharraf in the tribal areas.

Cato Scholar Comments on Plans to Shift $230 Million in Aid to Pakistan from Counterterrorism Programs to Upgrading F-16s (Scholar Comments)

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Because F-16s fighter jets are rarely used for law enforcement or counterterrorism, it appears that President Bush's recent shift of $230 million in aid to Pakistan from counterterrorism programs to upgrading that country's aging fleet of F-16s is an attempt to sustain Pakistan's cooperation in the fight against terrorism. The plan, however, is a dangerous quid pro quo. Not only has Pakistan's military proven unable, and at times unwilling, to uproot militant safe havens along the Afghan-Pakistan border, but by most accounts, Pakistan's national intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence ('ISI'), still actively assists the Taliban. Even worse, despite billions in U.S. military aid already given to Islamabad, much of it has evaporated due to widespread corruption and mismanagement. But for the time being, America's policy toward Islamabad will be held hostage to events in land-locked Afghanistan, where U.S.-led NATO operations rely heavily on fuel and supply shipments that must travel through neighboring Pakistan. While cooperation with Pakistan is crucial, cooperation does not warrant a blank check to Pakistan's army or the upgrading of sophisticated weaponry that only feeds Pakistan's rivalry with India.

Cato Scholar Comments on Obama's Trip to Afghanistan (Scholar Comments)

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

On his trip to America's war zones, Sen. Barack Obama again argued that the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan is America's most crucial theater in the war on terror. Consequently, he supports sending two or three more combat brigades to the country to counter a sharp rise in violence. Obama also continues to state that the Iraq war was a profound strategic miscalculation. The trip is meant to improve the image of his foreign policy expertise. Experience is a relevant concern, but one should remember that President George W. Bush led one of the most experienced foreign policy teams in U.S. history. That experience did not prevent abysmal policy failures, including the diversion of military resources away from the campaign against the militants who attacked us on 9/11 to a country that posed no imminent threat at all. In contrast to Senator John McCain, who advocates staying in Iraq indefinitely, Obama is properly refocusing America's attention on the 'war on terror's' most crucial battleground: Afghanistan.

Disarming the World (Commentary)

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

McCain's plan against nukes is counterproductive. One of John McCain's more surprising policy positions is his explicit endorsement of complete global nuclear disarmament. "A quarter of a century ago," McCain noted, "President Ronald Reagan declared, 'Our dream is to see the day when nuclear w...

Cato Scholar Comments on Developments in Afghanistan (Scholar Comments)

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

With each passing day, Afghanistan is looking more like war-torn Iraq. This week, nine US soldiers were killed when 200 armed militants stormed a military outpost in eastern Afghanistan. Several weeks ago, a sophisticated Taliban assault on a Kandahar prison freed 1,200 inmates, including 350 Taliban members. Much of the violence is spillover from neighboring Pakistan, where that country’s ungoverned tribal areas provide safe haven for militants sabotaging U.S.-led NATO operations in Afghanistan. Another culprit in Afghanistan’s downward spiral is Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose weak central governance in Kabul has enabled warlords to fill the vacuum in much of eastern and southern Afghanistan. But what these recent defeats make clear is that America is painfully overstretched, and its military commitments in Iraq severely limit what it can do in Afghanistan. For the time being, Afghanistan will not stabilize so long as the safe havens exist in Pakistan; but until America reduces its presence in Iraq, the United States may continue to lose the most crucial theater in Bush’s “global war on terror.”

Like Sand between Their Fingers (Commentary)

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistan's civilian leaders have failed their country yet again. The fragile coalition government between the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) split when leaders disagreed over how to restore 60 judges, including Pakistan's Supreme Court Justice, sacked last November by Pre...

Cato Scholar Comments on McCain and Obama's Foreign Policies (Scholar Comments)

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Some political observers allege that Republican presidential hopeful John McCain is running for President Bush's third term. At least on foreign policy, their assessment is correct. McCain has championed the Iraq War's continued prosecution, openly suggested military action against Iran, and proposed the overthrow of even more rogue regimes. On the other side of the continuum is Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, who on issues related to foreign policy is McCain's polar opposite. Obama wants an expeditious withdrawal from Iraq within the first 16 months of his presidency, endorses engagement with Iran without preconditions, and argues that after years of President Bush diverting America's resources away from those who attacked us on 9/11 by invading a country that did not, the United States must focus on eradicating al Qaeda and the Taliban on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Before Americans decide whether they want more of the same or something completely different, they need only observe the present policies of the incumbent administration; as President Bush vividly demonstrates, what a presidential candidate says on the stump can differ wildly from what they'll actually do while in office.

Cato Scholar Comments on Pakistan's Leadership Gap (Scholar Comments)

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Pakistan's civilian leaders have failed their country yet again. The fragile coalition between the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) collapsed when leaders disagreed over how to restore 60 judges, including Pakistan's Supreme Court Justice, sacked last November by President Pervez Musharraf. Some political observers remain focused on the constitutional impact of the disagreement, which unless resolved, will allow Musharraf to hold sweeping powers over most other government institutions. But the true danger of the disagreement is not constitutional -- it's territorial. While the judge issue continues to dominate the civilian government's attention, the militant Islamist insurgency continues to spread along Pakistan's western frontier with Afghanistan, a development that slowly threatens the integrity of Pakistan itself. The only way Islamabad can counteract the radicalism is to focus on increasing, rather than reducing, the footprint of the Pakistani Army in the tribal areas. Until then, domestic power struggles and ceaseless political infighting will continue to overshadow a menace more sinister than mere legislative rivals.

McCain Talking Too Tough on Russia, China (Commentary)

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:00:00 EDT

John McCain recently vowed to work with Russia on nuclear disarmament. "Russia and the United States are no longer mortal enemies," the Republican presidential nominee said in a speech May 27 at the University of Denver. But there is a gaping chasm between McCain's objective of nuclear disarmamen...

Many Scott McClellans (Commentary)

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:00:00 EDT

Former White House press secretary Scott McClellan launches stinging criticisms of President Bush in his memoir, What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception. Some political observers have expressed shock at a top-level confidant launching attacks against a White ...