Other signs agree with the portents of these elections. Obama's job approval dropped more in the third quarter of 2009 than it had for any other president over the last half century. A solid majority of Americans believe the nation is "on the wrong track." Support in public opinion for Democrats in Congress has dropped steeply.

All in all, the evidence suggests the Obama administration might be on the same path that led the Clinton presidency to the election of 1994. But there is an important difference: In 1994, the public had some faith in the alternative to Clinton and the Democrats in Congress. In 2009, the public still has doubts about the Republican alternative to Pelosi and Obama. Those doubts came from the failings of the Bush administration. Until the Republicans reject the ideas that led to those failings – Big Government at home and crusades for democracy abroad – they will remain a second best alternative to Democrats that the public distrusts.