Back Off Tough Iraq Policy
by Ted Galen Carpenter
December 9, 2002
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Iraq's submission of a massive 12,000-page declaration concerning its chemical, biological and nuclear programs may slow but will not halt Washington's drive to war.
The war option, though, remains unwise for several reasons.
First, attacking a country that probably possesses chemical and biological weapons is extraordinarily reckless. If the United States launches such an attack, we had better pray that the Iraqi military command turns against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and refuses to carry out orders to use such weapons. Since the U.S. goal is to eliminate his regime, Saddam clearly has no incentive to refrain from using chemical and biological weapons. And if those weapons are unleashed against U.S. forces and allies, the war could turn extremely ugly and bloody.
Second, even if the war goes quickly and easily, military victory will mean the beginning, not the end, of America's headaches in Iraq. The United States would then be in charge of trying to stabilize and rebuild the country. But Iraq is a fragile, artificial entity that could come apart as Yugoslavia did during the 1990s. If the United States allowed that to happen, a huge power vacuum would be created in the Persian Gulf region — to the benefit of Washington's long-time adversary, Iran. Yet trying to hold Iraq together could make U.S. troops the target of secessionist forces that want to throw off Baghdad's yoke.
Finally, a war against Iraq would be a recruiting poster for Osama bin Laden. U.S. leaders may not regard an attack on Iraq as imperialist aggression, but that is how it would be perceived throughout the Islamic world. Thousands of new recruits would flock to al-Qaeda and other extremist organizations, thus intensifying the terrorist threat to the United States. Washington's policies in the Middle East have already made the United States unpopular in the region. Attacking Iraq and occupying the country for years to come will make America a lightning rod for Islamic anger.
The Bush administration would be wise to use the United Nations inspections system as a face-saving way to back off from an unwise and dangerous policy.
This article originally appeared in USA Today on December 9, 2002.