Immigration: The Demographic and Economic Facts

2. The Quantities of Immigrants

Published by the Cato Institute and the National Immigration Forum

Figure 2.1 shows the absolute numbers of legal immigrants over the decades. From 1930 to 1980, the numbers were far smaller than the numbers around the turn of the century, even including illegal immigrants.

The very high rates of legal immigration shown for 1989, 1990, and 1991 (and perhaps to some extent the rates for 1992 and 1993) are a result of the legalization of those persons who had been in the country for several years in a non-legal status. The actual immigration underlying those figures should be allocated to the entire decade ending in 1990 or even earlier. Even the highest 10 years, 1984 to 1993, saw fewer immigrants than 1905 to 1914.

There are no official data on emigration, but a variety of studies have shown that emigration always has been substantial. The Urban Institute offers the estimate of 200,000 emigrants a year in the 1990s (Fix and Passel 1994, 23).

From the point of view of the economic impact on natives, more appropriate than the absolute numbers is the volume of immigration as a proportion of the native population. Figure 2.2 shows that the immigrants who arrived between 1901 and 1910 constituted 10 percent of the population, whereas between 1981 and 1990 immigrants constituted 3 percent of the population. The recent flow is less than a third as heavy a burden for the native population to absorb as in that earlier period

Figure 2.1: Ten-Year Moving Average Number of Immigrants, 1830-1993

The Proportion of Resident Immigrants in the Population

Turning from the flow to the stock of immigrants, Figure 2.3 shows the total stock of immigrants by decade. And Figure 2.4 shows the stock as a proportion of the population. From 1860 to 1920, more than 13 percent of the population was foreign-born. In 1990, roughly 8.5 percent of the population--about 1 person in 12 in the United States--was born abroad, considerably smaller proportionally than during much of U.S. history.

The present proportion in the United States, 8.5 percent, also may be compared to 1990s' proportions of 22.7 percent in Australia; 16 percent in Canada; 6.3 percent in France; 7.3 percent in Germany; 3.9 percent in Great Britain; and 5.7 percent in Sweden. Figure 2.5 shows the recent trends.

The numbers of aliens illegally residing and working in the United States at present (the "stock" of nondocumented persons) as well as the number by which the stock is increased each year (the net "flow" of nondocumented persons) enter importantly into the discussion of immigration. In the past when there was slight knowledge of these subjects, huge numbers were bandied about; for example, the Immigration and Naturalization Service has publicized estimates as high as 12 million residents. By now, however, demographers have a rather solid understanding of how many illegals are in the United States and have now reached reasonable consensus. (Some of the major methods include analyses of death registrations, census data, Mexican census data, and surveys of Mexican villages.)

Figure 2.6 shows that the stock of illegal aliens has tended to rise rather modestly and that the amnesty of 1987-1988 brought the stock down to the levels around 1980.

Figure 2.2: Ten-Year Moving Average Rate of Immigration, 1830-1993 (per 1,000 Total U.S. Population)

Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1994; Statistical Yearbook of the INS, 1993, p. 25.

Net Flows of Illegal Aliens

According to an authoritative recent review, the net flow "is 200,000 to 300,000 a year" (Fix and Passel 1994, 4). This estimate is of the same order (though perhaps a bit lower) than the 305,000 net annual addition that was estimated for 1989 to 1992 by Robert Warren of the INS (another main long-time student of the subject), a number which itself reflects a "modest drop" from the 334,000 estimated for the period 1982-1988 (correspondence, August 31, 1993). A modest interpretation of these data is not that they show a decline but that they show the absence of an important increase.

These estimates are for the net annual addition to the population. They are much smaller than the gross flow and the number of apprehensions; those numbers do not deduct the number of such persons who leave the United States.

A considerable proportion of the net flows of illegals in the 1970s and 1980s is embodied in the data in Figures 2.1 and 2.2, due to the amnesty that caused many earlier illegal entrants to be counted later as legal entrants.

Figure 2.3: Total Size of the Foreign-Born Population, 1850-1990

Source: "The Index of Leading Immigration Indicators," compiled by John J. Miller and Stephen Moore, in Strangers at Our Gate--Immigration in the 1990s (Washington: Manhattan Institute, and San Francisco: Pacific Institute, 1994), p. 104.

Stocks of Illegal Aliens

The Census Bureau estimated that as of 1990, there were 3.3 million illegal resident aliens, with a maximum of 5.5 million. This estimate was considered to be the most reliable by the U.S. General Accounting Office report on the subject in August 1993. The GAO's own assessment is that, "in summary, based on the Census Bureau data and on our analysis, it appears that there were likely to have been no more than 3.4 million illegal aliens resident in the United States in 1990 .|.|. lower than the 5.5 million maximum likely estimate derived by the Census Bureau." (1993, 56).

Figure 2.4: Immigrants as a Percentage of the Population, 1850-1990

Source: "The Index of Leading Immigration Indicators," compiled by John J. Miller and Stephen Moore, in Strangers at Our Gate--Immigration in the 1990s (Washington: Manhattan Institute, and San Francisco: Pacific Institute, 1994), p. 105.

Mode of Entry

A substantial proportion of illegal aliens enter legally. "Only 4 out of 10 undocumented aliens cross the border illegally or enter without inspection. Six out of 10 undocumented aliens enter legally--as visitors, students, or temporary employees--and become illegal by failing to leave when their visas expire" (Fix and Passel 1994, 25).

Figure 2.5: Foreign Born as a Proportion of Population in Selected Countries, 1920-1994

Source: Simon, 1989, p.29; Vernez, 1994.

Guestworkers and Illegal Workers

Evidence about the effect of a guestworker program can be seen in the data from the "bracero" program in operation for mostly Mexican agricultural workers four decades ago. When the program was at its height from 1956 to 1963, illegal entry (as measured by apprehensions) fell from about half a million a year (and a crash program spike of over a million apprehensions in 1954) to well under 100,000 from 1956 to 1964. (See Figure 2.7.) This is one of the most conclusive quasi-experiments in social policy that has ever been conducted. The inverse correlation between apprehensions and guestworkers must astonish any social scientist. It is caused by employers preferring to employ legal workers who will not be subject to sudden departure due to legal action.

Figure 2.6: Undocumented Alien Population, 1980-1992

Source: Fix and Passel, 1994, p.23.

Figure 2.7: Mexican Guestworkers in the United States and Apprehensions of Illegal Entrants, 1943-78

Sources: INS Statistical Yearbook, 1993, p. 158; Calavita, K., Inside the State, New York: Routledge, 1992, pps. 217-18.

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