When interviewed by public opinion polls, Americans have always
been against more immigration. This is the finding of R. Simon's
review of the national U.S. surveys that included questions about
immigration, from the earliest polls in the 1930s through
1993--mainly Gallup, NORC, and Harris surveys. Though the
strength of the sentiment has varied, at all times the responses
seem to indicate that Americans have not favored increased
immigration as a general matter (see Figure 9.1). Fairly typical
was a 1977 Gallup poll which asked, "Should immigration be kept
at its present level, increased or decreased?" Seven percent said
"Increased," 37 percent said "Present level," and 42 percent said
"Decreased," with 14 percent "No opinion" (R. Simon 1985, 41).

     Content analysis of writings about immigrants in magazines
over the past century well before the first polls--in the 19th
century and even earlier--and continuing into the 20th century
shows that the same viewpoint has been popularly expressed in all
periods. R. Simon characterizes American public opinion
throughout the century as, "The people who came here in earlier
times were good folks, but the people who are coming now are
purely scum" (see also Douglas 1919).

     A different impression emerges from a different sort of
question, however. Americans have positive feelings toward the
immigrants in their own areas and toward the immigrants they know
personally. The comparison between the results of the two
inquiries can be seen clearly in a 1978 poll about Vietnamese
immigrants. When asked, "Thinking now about the Indochinese
refugees, the so-called `boat people'; would you favor or oppose
the United States relaxing its immigration policies so that many
of these people could come to live in the United States?", 32
percent were in favor, 57 percent were opposed, with 11 percent
no opinion. But when asked, "Would you, yourself, like to see
some of these people come to live in this community or not?", 48
percent said "yes," 40 percent said "no," with 13 percent no
opinion. There is an interesting split in thought here, with the
greater voiced opposition apparently being based upon abstract
belief formed by the mass media, and the greater voiced support
coming from personal experience with immigrants (R. Simon 1985,
42).

     Another indication of lack of consistency in public thinking
about immigration is the fact that people look back toward prior
waves of immigration with more positive feelings than they have
toward the present wave, whenever "present" is, as noted above,
according to R. Simon's content analysis.

     There is widespread opinion among Americans that "most
immigrants wind up on welfare" (47 percent, according to a 1986
poll; New York Times, July 14, 1986, 1).

     Forty-nine percent of respondents said that "[m]ost recent
immigrants are here illegally" (New York Times/CBS News poll,
June 1986).

Eminent Economists' Opinions

     In a poll of eminent economists conducted by Stephen Moore
and me in the mid-1980s (see Simon 1989, Appendix C), with update
by Moore in 1990, we found agreement that immigration had (and
has now) a positive effect upon the economic condition of the
United States; Moore found comparable results in a 1989 poll,
too. Included in the surveys were 38 persons who had been
president of the American Economic Association, as well as those
who had been members of the President's Council of Economic
Advisers. In answer to the question, "On balance, what effect has
twentieth-century immigration had on the nation's economic
growth?", 81 percent answered "Very favorable" and 19 percent
answered "Slightly favorable." (See below.) None of these top
economists said that immigration was "slightly" or "very
unfavorable" or felt that he or she did not know enough to
answer. This extraordinary consensus belies the public picture of
the economic profession as being on both sides of all important
matters.

     The top economists also are willing to extend their backward
assessment into a forward-looking policy judgment. When asked,
"What level of immigration would have the most favorable impact
on the U. S. standard of living?", 56 percent said "more," 33
percent said "same number," and none said "fewer." Only 11
percent said "don't know."


Survey of Top Economists

     These are the full poll results:

On balance, what effect has 20th-century immigration had on the
nation's economic growth?


Economists     (percent)

Very favorable       80

Slightly favorable   20

Slightly unfavorable --

Very unfavorable     --

Don't know           --


What level of immigration would have the most favorable impact on
the U.S. standard of living?


Economists     (percent)

More           63

Same number    30

Fewer           0

Don't know      7


Do you feel that recent immigrants are qualitatively different in
economic terms than immigrants in past years?


Economists               (percent)

More negative impact     11

About the same impact    76

More positive impact     4

Don't know               9


What impact does illegal immigration in its current magnitude
have on the U.S. economy?


Economists                        (percent)

Illegals have a positive impact    74

Illegals have a neutral impact     11

Illegals have a negative impact    11

Don't know                          4