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No. 649

October 12, 2009

Somalia, Redux

A More Hands-Off Approach

by David Axe

Executive Summary

The resulting Ethiopian occupation of Somalia

he two-decade-old conflict in Somalia has

--in which as many as 16,000 people died--col-

entered a new phase, which presents both a chal-

lapsed in early 2009 against the backdrop of one of

lenge and an opportunity for the United States.

the world's worst sustained humanitarian crises.

The elections of new U.S. and Somali presidents

Taking advantage of the political and economic

in late 2008 and early 2009 provide an opportu-

chaos, hundreds of desperate Somali fishermen

nity to reframe U.S.-Somali relations. To best

turned to piracy, making the waters off Somalia

encourage peace in the devastated country,

the world's most dangerous for seafarers.

Washington needs a new strategy that takes into

With the Islamists' return to power earlier this

account hard-learned lessons from multiple

year, under the banner of the new president,

failed U.S. interventions. The old strategy favor-

Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Washington has a rare

ing military force and reflexive opposition to all

chance to reset bilateral relations. The Obama

Islamists should give way to one emphasizing

administration should work to build a regional

regional diplomacy and at least tacit acceptance

framework for reconciliation, the rule of law, and

of a government that is capable of bringing order

economic development that acknowledges the

to Somalia.

unique risks of intervention in East Africa.

Whatever the Obama administration's ap-

Somalia's best hope for peace is the moderate

proach to Somalia, it must avoid the failures of

Islamic government that has emerged from the

the Bush administration. The rise of a popular,

most recent rounds of fighting, despite early

moderate Islamic government in 2006 sparked an

opposition from the United States and its allies.

Ethiopian invasion, for which the United States

There are ways in which the United States could

provided key backing. Washington defended its

help Somalia escape its cycle of violence and

support of the Ethiopian attack on the grounds

that Somalia's Islamic Courts regime was actively

peacefully encourage progress by working with

harboring known members of al Qaeda, a claim

this former enemy, but Washington should err

that appears to have been exaggerated.

on the side of nonintervention.

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David Axe is a freelance military correspondent based in South Carolina and the author of War Fix.

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