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The best way to

self-identify his or her own ideological posi-

More specifically, candidates who favor lower

tion. Those tests confirmed that our ques-

taxes, spending restraint, free trade, Social

attract libertarian

tions are correctly separating libertarians

Security private accounts, reproductive choice,

voters is

from conservatives.

and a welcoming attitude toward working

not through

To make sure that the screens were not

women, immigrants, and gays are going to

underinclusive--that is, that they were indeed

find favor with libertarian voters. Candidates

microtargeting

identifying most actual libertarians in the

who support protectionism, tax increases,

or better polling

sample--we surveyed interns and policy ana-

ever-expanding entitlement programs, and

lysts at the Cato Institute, most of whom we

intrusions into personal freedoms will lose the

but through

assumed would be reasonably well-informed

libertarian vote.

libertarian

libertarians.63

At minimum, what this study proves is

positions.

that the effort to search out to libertarian

Cato respondents self-identified as follows:

voters is worth the cost. The libertarian vote

is knowable, understandable, and winnable.

87% libertarian

We've taken the first step. The candidates

4% moderate

and political strategists willing to look more

4% conservative

carefully at the electorate may find a large

0% very conservative

group of homeless voters looking for a home.

4% not sure

· Using the libertarian screening questions

Appendix:

from ANES, 26 of 37 (or 70 percent of)

A Note on Validity

respondents would be "libertarian."

Those included 17 of 20 self-identified

libertarians and did not include the one

As noted above, no survey of ideologies is

self-identified conservative.

definitive. Simple poll questions cannot ade-

·

quately capture the nuances of any ideology.

Using the libertarian screening questions

Intellectuals could quibble with the wording

from Gallup, 31 of 37 (or 84 percent of)

of all the questions. Certainly we do not claim

respondents would be "libertarian."

that the "libertarians" these polls identify have

Those included 18 of 20 self-identified

read Ayn Rand or Robert Nozick. But we do

libertarians and the one self-identified

think that the questions we have used are valid

conservative.

·

for identifying people who cannot fairly be

Using the libertarian screen question

classified as either "liberal" or "conservative"

from Pew, 29 of 37 (or 78 percent of)

as those terms are understood in contempo-

respondents would be "libertarian."

rary American politics. The screens identify

Those included 18 of 20 self-identified

Americans who fall outside the red-blue divide

libertarians and the one self-identified

in a broadly libertarian direction, skeptical of

conservative.

government involvement in both economic

and personal matters.

All three screens did a reasonable job of cap-

To check that claim, we performed a valid-

turing respondents who are known to be

ity test on two groups of ideologically sophis-

largely libertarian. Comparing the three

ticated respondents, employees of the liber-

screens, ANES may be slightly underinclusive

tarian Cato Institute and the conservative

compared to Gallup or Pew. That would

Heritage Foundation. We asked each group

mean ANES may slightly underestimate the

to answer the nine questions drawn from the

libertarian vote share. (However, we find

Gallup, ANES, and Pew surveys, along with

almost the same percentage using both

several other questions from those surveys

ANES and Pew.)

that we did not choose to use in our national

To ensure that the screens were not overin-

screening. We also asked each respondent to

clusive--that is, that they were not identifying as

22