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However, small national trends can matter

much more difficult for outsiders and chal-

a great deal in presidential elections. That is

lengers to mount effective campaigns. Politics

perhaps where the libertarian vote will matter

has become more professional, with year-round

most for the near future, and effective strate-

campaigning, fundraising, and strategizing.

gists will pay attention to it. Presidential can-

Members of Congress have created taxpayer-

didates in 2008, and the campaign strategists

funded websites, mailing lists, and television

and political pollsters who advise them, would

studios to get their message out, a public rela-

do well to begin investigating the libertarian

tions barrage difficult for any challenger to

vote themselves. Pollsters at the major news

match. As a Cato Institute study showed,

agencies might investigate these trends com-

Congress creates increasingly complex laws and

ing out of the 2006 midterm election and into

then offers help to constituents who have trou-

the 2008 season. More research needs to be

ble navigating the vast federal bureaucracy, thus

earning credit with grateful voters.59

done to find a single question that identifies

the libertarian vote to simplify analysis. For

One overlooked aspect of the incumbent

now, we'd propose that the news agencies that

protection system is the array of campaign

commission the 2006 and 2008 exit polls con-

finance restrictions that have arisen since

sider including a question similar to one used

1974. Limits on contributions help to pro-

to identify the religious right: "Do you consid-

tect incumbents from well-funded chal-

er yourself to be fiscally conservative and

lengers. Eugene McCarthy's long-shot chal-

socially liberal, also known as libertarian?"

lenge to President Lyndon B. Johnson in

Technology may change some of this.

1968 would have been impossible without

Major polling companies such as Harris

large contributions from anti-war business-

Interactive have made improvements in the

men. So what did the political establishment

accuracy of Internet probability sampling.

do? It prohibited large contributions.

This technology allows pollsters to draw very

Redistricting has become an effective tool

large samples at low cost.61 This would help

for incumbent protection. With modern data

and software, politicians have refined the ger-

pollsters understand smaller segments of the

rymandering process into an advanced sci-

population, such as libertarians, with greater

ence. Helped by court decisions that man-

accuracy. Second, "microtargeting" is mak-

date exact mathematical equality for districts

ing it possible for political strategists to tar-

but give little weight to county lines and nat-

get voters ever more narrowly. Both parties

ural communities, they have carved out

have invested heavily in voter databases--the

Rorschach-blot districts block by block to

Republican National Committee in a data-

protect incumbents. A shift in the popular

base named Voter Vault, and the Democratic

vote may not swing nearly as many districts

National Committee in a database named

Presidential

Datamart.62 Sophisticated data mining by

as it used to. Districts used to choose repre-

candidates in

sentatives, now representatives choose their

both parties may turn up new strategies for

2008, and the

districts. And while partisanship plays a role,

looking in different ways at voters and

incumbent protection is increasingly more

groups of voters who have different lifestyles,

campaign

important. Describing the crucial California

values, and political views.

strategists and

redistricting after the 2000 census, California

The best way to attract libertarian voters is

political pollsters

Democratic chairman Art Torres said: "This

not through microtargeting or better polling

really is a bipartisan effort. You maintain the

but through libertarian positions. Candidates

who advise them,

20 Republican seats."60

who embrace both economic dynamism and

would do well

social tolerance will be more appealing to lib-

In all these ways congressional incum-

ertarian voters. Candidates who offer a pro-

bents protect themselves from the threat of

to begin

gram of big-government spending and aggres-

challengers and thus reduce both the num-

investigating the

sive social conservatism will tend to drive away

ber of new people elected to office and their

libertarian vote.

libertarians and libertarian-leaning centrists.

own need to reach new constituencies.

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