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If Bush had

a benchmark for comparison, ABC News

libertarians are in every year a higher percent-

polling director Gary Larson debunked the

age of actual voters than of the voting-age

dropped to 50

much discussed "NASCAR dad" as a "single-

population.

percent of the

digit" share of the national population, only "2

percent of all voters" in the 2000 exit polls.49 Slate

libertarian vote,

Libertarians in 2004 and Beyond

About 122 million people voted for presi-

editor Jacob Weisberg noted in 1996, "Narrowly

he would likely

dent in 2004, up from 105 million in 2000. If

defined as married, college-educated, suburban

have lost three

libertarians were 13 percent of that number

women with school-age children, soccer moms

(our ANES calculations actually found liber-

constitute only 4 percent or 5 percent of the elec-

states.

torate."50 According to 2000 exit polls, members

tarians at 15 percent of reported voters), that

suggests about 16 million libertarian voters.

of the "religious right" were 14 percent of all vot-

ers.51 Libertarians are about as large a segment as

Had President Bush received 72 percent of

the libertarian vote, as he did in 2000, he

the religious right and much larger than other

would have had 11.4 million libertarian

heralded swing demographic groups.

votes. Instead, he received only 59 percent, or

Moreover, a 10 percent shift among liber-

9.4 million. Had those 2 million voters not

tarian voters is 1.3 percent of the electorate,

switched to Kerry, Bush's narrow 2004 win

or a 2.6 percent swing if those voters switch

would have been a resounding reelection. It's

from one party to another. In our evenly

often remarked that Bush came within

divided electorate, that's a lot. In his strategy

60,000 votes of losing Ohio and thus the elec-

memo for the Bush-Cheney reelection effort,

toral vote. But as Ryan Sager notes in The

Matthew Dowd said that self-described

Elephant in the Room, he also came within

"independent" voters "are independent in

60,000 votes of losing Colorado, Nevada, and

name only. Seventy-five percent of indepen-

New Mexico, with a total of 19 electoral

dents vote a straight ticket" for one party or

votes, which would also have given Kerry the

the other. True swing voters are only 6 per-

cent of the population.52 If he's right, liber-

presidency despite a loss in the popular

vote.48 And there's little doubt that the liber-

tarian-leaning voters are a big portion of cur-

rent swing voters. And of course, it takes two

tarian vote is as strong in the Mountain West

new base voters to replace one swing voter

as anywhere. If Bush had dropped to 50 per-

who switches from one party to the other, so

cent of the libertarian vote, he would likely

strategists should pay close attention to

have lost those three states.

swing voters.

The libertarian vote seems to be in play.

Kerry picked up some 2.8 million libertarian

votes despite offering libertarians very little

The Big Picture

except his being the only alternative to Bush.

Kerry voted for the Iraq war and the Patriot Act,

opposed gay marriage, and had no economic

In an important 1998 essay, Mark Lilla of

program except the old Democratic agenda of

the University of Chicago wrote about "the

higher taxes and interest-group spending pro-

cultural revolution that we call `the Sixties'

grams. Imagine a Democratic candidate who,

and the shift in political and economic atti-

say, supported private accounts for Social

tudes that, for lack of a better word, can be

termed `the Reagan revolution.'"53 He argued

Security (as President Bill Clinton considered

doing in 1998), promised to cut wasteful pro-

that the right continues to resist the cultural

grams, and actually defended civil liberties. He

changes of the 1960s, and the left continues to

or she would surely build on Kerry's 38 percent

resist the economic changes of the 1980s. Few

support from libertarians.

political analysts have come to terms with the

In any case, 13 percent of the electorate is a

fact that the same generation lived in the

substantial number, one well worth the atten-

1960s and the 1980s. Many of the same people

tion of strategists in both parties and beyond. As

were involved in the anti-war movement or the

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