Table 6
How Libertarians Voted for President, 19882004 (percent)
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Swing Potential
Democratic candidate
26
32
29
20
38
18
Republican candidate
74
35
58
72
59
-39
Third-party candidates
0
33
13
8
3
33
Source: Authors' calculations from ANES data.
Like other Americans, libertarians who
Internet millionaire Eric Greenberg raised
worried most about the threat of terrorism
$100,000 for Republicans in 2000 but in 2004
preferred Bush to Kerry. In 2004, according to
raised far more for Democrats because of what
the ANES data, libertarians accounted for 13
he saw as Republican restrictions on stem-cell
research.37
percent of the total adult population of the
United States. Of those, half told pollsters that
Anecdotal evidence from prominent liber-
"terrorism" was the most important issue in
tarians confirms the importance of the issue
the last four years.31 Others were widely split,
of terrorism in 2004. Libertarian-leaning
Louis Rossetto, who started Wired magazine,
citing the economy, the war in Iraq, civil liber-
intended to vote for Bush: "Bush may be
ties, or other issues as most important. Of
wrong about everything else, but he is right
those libertarians who identified terrorism as
about the issue that matters most for my chil-
the most important issue in the last four years,
dren's future: stopping Islamic fascism."
80 percent voted for George W. Bush, while 20
David Kopel of the Independence Institute
percent voted for John Kerry. Of those who
said: "This will be the first election in which I
identified anything else as the most important
have ever voted for a Republican for president.
issue, 56 percent voted for Kerry, and 39 per-
cent voted for Bush.32 In other words, libertar-
We're in a war in which the survival of civiliza-
tion is at stake, and Bush is the only candidate
ians for whom terrorism was the most impor-
who realizes the gravity of the danger we face
tant issue were twice as likely to vote for Bush.
and who is determined to win World War IV,"
If terrorism is not as critical a decision point in
language echoed by Vermont libertarian
upcoming elections, or if support for Bush's
author and gadfly John McClaughry. Law pro-
handling of terrorism declines, then perhaps
fessor Eugene Volokh also cited the war on ter-
libertarians frustrated with big-government
rorism in his decision to vote Republican.38
Republicans will be less likely to stick with
them on national security grounds.
In a 2003 paper, Daron R. Shaw and Paul
Anecdotal evidence fleshes out this picture.
Janowitz of the University of Texas define
Consider some voters quoted in newspapers in
swing voters as "voters who, over some set of
2004: Republican investor Doug Andrews in
elections for a given office, cast votes for more
than one party's candidates."39 We might add
Colorado told the Financial Times that "the
world is much more dangerous as a result" of
that any identifiable group of swing voters
the Iraq war.33 Missouri nurse Terry Hammer
ought to be big enough to make a difference in
the outcome. By that definition, libertarians
voted for Bush in 2000 but was appalled by the
antigay marriage amendment.34 Financial
have clearly become swing voters in American
For those on the
elections.
consultant Kim Mecklenburg, featured in a
Moveon.org ad, said she had always voted
trail of the elusive
Down-ticket Voting and Turnout
Republican but felt "betrayed [by] reckless
swing voter, the
spending."35 Missouri farmer Faye Pavelka likes
We can observe the same libertarian swing
tax cuts but only if you also reduce spending.36
real news is 2004.
in 2004 congressional races. Table 7 shows
13