<<  <  >  >>

Table 5

Voting Behavior of Ideological Types in Presidential Elections, 1972­1980 (percent)

19721

19762

1980

Ideological Type

Nixon  McGovern

Ford  Carter

Reagan

Carter Anderson & Others

Libertarian

75

24

66

30

66

18

17

Conservative

84

16

65

34

78

17

5

Populist

57

42

39

61

41

57

3

Liberal

40

59

30

67

31

54

15

Divided

70

30

45

53

43

44

13

Source: William S. Maddox and Stuart A. Lilie, Beyond Liberal and Conservative (Washington: Cato Institute, 1984),

p. 104.

1

0.87 percent of sample voted for other candidates.

2

1.9 percent of sample voted for other candidates.

There is evidence

But in 1992, after the senior Bush's tax

Swinging Libertarians

not only that

increase, libertarians split their previously

So how do libertarians vote? Candidates and

Republican majority almost evenly between

political organizers may think it's all well and

libertarians exist,

Bush and third-party candidate Ross Perot.

good to claim that some 13 percent of the elec-

and that they

That suggests that the libertarian affinity for

torate is libertarian. But unless it affects their

vote, but that

Republicans is easily broken. It might also sug-

voting, it hardly matters to the politicos. We

gest that libertarians have a high tolerance for

think there is evidence not only that libertarians

their votes are

eccentric candidates. Note that libertarians

exist, and that they vote, but that their votes are

currently in flux.

also gave a high percentage of their votes to

currently in flux. Libertarians may well be the

third-party candidates in 1996 (Perot again)

next soccer moms or NASCAR dads.

and 1980 (independent John B. Anderson and

Given the dominance of fiscal and eco-

perhaps Libertarian Party candidate Ed Clark,

nomic issues over the past generation, it is

who got 1.1 percent of the vote that year).

perhaps not surprising that libertarians have

But for those on the trail of the elusive

tended to vote Republican. Using CPS data

swing voter, the real news in this table is 2004.

(the precursor to ANES), Maddox and Lilie

The libertarian vote for Bush dropped from 72

found the vote breakdowns given in Table 5

to 59 percent, while the libertarian vote for the

in 1972, 1976, and 1980.

Democratic nominee almost doubled.29 It's

Using ANES data, we find that libertari-

ans have voted heavily Republican in recent

not hard to imagine why. Bush's record on fed-

presidential elections, but with interesting

eral spending, centralization of education,

variations (Table 6). In 1988, given a choice

expansion of entitlements, the war in Iraq,

between watered-down Reagan in the form of

executive authority, the federal marriage

George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis's

amendment, and civil liberties was certainly

combination of big-government orthodoxy

sufficient to dissuade libertarian voters. Kerry,

and "card-carrying membership in the

alas, offered little for libertarians other than

ACLU," libertarians voted 74­26 for Bush. In

"not Bush." He voted for the war and the

2000 libertarians gave 72 percent of their

Patriot Act, never articulated a clear alternative

votes to George W. Bush, who said every day

position on either, and offered standard

on the campaign trail, "My opponent trusts

Democratic support for higher taxes and

government. I trust you," and only 20 percent

spending. Nevertheless, he narrowed the

to Al Gore, of whom Bush's claim seemed

Republican majority among libertarians from

52 points to 21 points.30

entirely too accurate.

12