No. 580
October 18, 2006
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The Libertarian Vote
by David Boaz and David Kirby
Executive Summary
The main theme of political commentary in
percent in the Pew Research Center Typology
this decade is polarization. Since the battles over
Survey, and 13 percent in the American National
the impeachment of President Clinton and the
Election Studies, generally regarded as the best
Florida vote in 2000, pundits have been telling us
source of public opinion data.
that we're a country split down the middle, red
For those on the trail of the elusive swing voter,
vs. blue, liberal vs. conservative. Political analysts
it may be most notable that the libertarian vote
talk about base motivation and the shrinking of
shifted sharply in 2004. Libertarians preferred
the swing vote. But the evidence says they are
George W. Bush over Al Gore by 72 to 20 percent,
wrong.
but Bush's margin dropped in 2004 to 59-38 over
Not all Americans can be classified as liberal
John Kerry. Congressional voting showed a similar
or conservative. In particular, polls find that
swing from 2002 to 2004. Libertarians apparently
some 10 to 20 percent of voting-age Americans
became disillusioned with Republican overspend-
are libertarian, tending to agree with conserva-
ing, social intolerance, civil liberties infringements,
tives on economic issues and with liberals on per-
and the floundering war in Iraq. If that trend con-
sonal freedom. The Gallup Governance Survey
tinues into 2006 and 2008, Republicans will lose
consistently finds about 20 percent of respon-
elections they would otherwise win.
dents giving libertarian answers to a two-ques-
The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 per-
tion screen.
cent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to
Our own data analysis is stricter. We find 9 to
swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists,
13 percent libertarians in the Gallup surveys, 14
candidates, and the media should take note of it.
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David Boaz is executive vice president of the Cato Institute. He is the author of Libertarianism: A Primer and edi-
tor of The Libertarian Reader, Toward Liberty, and Left, Right & Babyboom: America's New Politics.
David Kirby is executive director of America's Future Foundation and a graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of
Government.