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U.S. policymakers

Introduction

North's nuclear weapons program, such

weapons will pose only a limited threat to the

must seek ways to

U.S. homeland because of the relatively limit-

The Americans and Japanese have cooper-

devolve security

ed range and poor accuracy of North Korean

ated to address East Asian security issues for

responsibilities to

ballistic missiles, the absence of any other reli-

many years. The United States has retained a

able long-range delivery vehicles, and the

formal leadership role in the region through

wealthy, stable,

United States' overwhelming deterrent capa-

its maintenance of a sizable military garrison

democratic allies.

bility. Nonetheless, with more than 30,000

on Japanese territory. For their part, Japanese

U.S. troops stationed in South Korea and

policymakers have grown more confident and

along the demilitarized zone, and with anoth-

assertive. They have increasingly pushed the

er 35,000 U.S. troops residing in Japan,1 Kim's

envelope on the definition of "self-defense,"

progressively expanding, in both philosophi-

weapons clearly pose a threat to U.S. interests

cal and practical terms, the uses of military

and Americans in East Asia.

force that are considered legitimate under

They pose an even greater threat to Kim's

Japan's officially pacifist constitution. The

neighbors. That fact, combined with Kim's

Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) today is

erratic behavior, has led the Japanese, in par-

ticular, to take a hard look at their defenses.2

one of the most capable militaries on the plan-

et, and that will continue to be the case, even if

Even if the nuclear stand-off is resolved, rela-

total Japanese defense spending remains rela-

tions between Tokyo and Pyongyang will like-

tively modest.

ly remain frosty so long as the DPRK refuses

Meanwhile, U.S. military power, still un-

to account fully for the abduction of Japanese

matched in absolute terms, is insufficient for

citizens in the 1970s and 1980s.

maintaining a dominant position in all corners

But lingering hostility toward and suspi-

of the globe. If the United States is to focus on

cion of North Korea in the near term pale in

a few areas of particular concern related to the

comparison with Japanese concerns over the

global war on terrorism, especially the Middle

medium to long term with respect to a rising

East, then U.S. policymakers must seek ways to

China. Beijing is exerting greater influence in

quietly devolve security responsibilities to

the political, economic, and diplomatic

wealthy, stable, democratic allies in other

realms and simultaneously threatening to

regions of the world. That reorientation

use force against Taiwan if the island pro-

applies to Europe, where long-time NATO

ceeds on its current path toward greater inde-

allies should be expected to play a much larger

pendence. Japan would look upon Chinese

role in the defense of a continent that has

annexation of Taiwan as a national security

enjoyed relative peace and security for more

threat, but it is less clear how it would

than 50 years. U.S. policymakers should apply

respond to more subtle Chinese challenges to

the same reasoning to East Asia, a region con-

Japanese economic and security interests in

fronting several urgent security challenges.

and around Taiwan.

Chief among those challenges has been the

The trajectory of China's rise to regional

Clinton and George W. Bush administrations'

prominence threatens to collide with both

inability to prevent the dictator of the

Japanese and American interests. The open

Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kim

question is whether all three countries will be

Jong-il, from developing nuclear weapons.

able to establish a new strategic balance or

Despite some progress in the Six-Party Talks,

whether competition for influence in East

the future of the North Korean nuclear pro-

Asia will lead to a clash that could threaten

gram remains very much in doubt. Kim's

the lives of hundreds of millions of people on

nuclear ambitions today pose no immediate

both sides of the Pacific.

and direct threat to U.S. security. If the Six-

According to Eugene Matthews, a former

Party Talks fail to achieve the complete, verifi-

senior fellow at the Council on Foreign

able, and irreversible dismantlement of the

Relations and now president of the interna-

2