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· Cuban

what we learned on visits to Cuba in February

Americans, who support the

and April­May 2001 to present a considered

embargo much more widely than any

overview of current conditions. On that basis,

other group in the United States, also

we analyze whether, in the light of those con-

violate it most frequently and signifi-

ditions, current U.S. policy is likely to produce

cantly. By sending remittances to the

the desired effect of inducing the Cuban

island they always violate the embar-

authorities to "see the errors of their ways" and

go's spirit and sometimes violate its

to introduce the changes that would so great-

legal restrictions as well.

· The vast majority of those who are

ly benefit the Cuban people. This paper is

based in part on extensive discussions that

intended to be the chief beneficiaries of

were held with Cuban officials, private-sector

U.S. policy (the Cuban people and the

individuals, dissidents, and foreign diplomats

country's human rights and political

as well as personal observations and

activists) by all available evidence

exchanges with ordinary Cubans in Havana,

oppose the embargo and are at best

Pinar del Rio, Playa Girón, Cienfuegos,

skeptical of the value of U.S. official

Trinidad, Camaguey, Bayamo, Santiago, and

financial aid to the opposition in Cuba.

· As estimated by the U.S. International

points in between. It draws on those discus-

Absent national

sions and observations to set out possible

Trade Commission, U.S. firms are los-

security threats,

implications for U.S. policy.

ing out to foreign competition in an

Cuba is a complex and complicated soci-

amount ranging anywhere from $684

the U.S. govern-

ety. With the instruments of totalitarian con-

million to $1.2 billion per annum.

ment does not

trol still in place, it is also a society where

have the right to

appearances are deceiving. Statements by

Those realities are significant. But U.S. pol-

public officials are rarely gospel truth.

icy toward Cuba is based more on emotions,

prohibit the trav-

Official statistics and interpretations of law

domestic political calculations, and historical

el and business of

are not necessarily reliable. Legislation tends

inertia than on rational calculation. Thus it

to follow practice--rather than the other way

turns its back on central principles of

American citizens

around. Nonetheless, even allowing for those

American democracy: that, absent national

abroad.

caveats, certain conclusions can be drawn.

security threats, the U.S. government does not

The chief ones follow.

have the right to prohibit the travel and busi-

ness of American citizens abroad and that eco-

· The United States and Cuba are essen-

nomic freedom tends to breed political free-

dom. The policy thus fails to advance U.S.

tially coconspirators in misrepresent-

interests and U.S. values effectively. The Bush

ing the effects of the embargo as more

administration should undertake a funda-

significant than is in fact the case. The

mental review of the U.S. approach to Cuba.

Cuban economy is not flourishing, but

The first step could be a revival of the pro-

it is also no longer backsliding.

· With the enthusiastic cooperation of

posed presidential bipartisan commission to

evaluate the policy that was killed by President

many of the United States' closest allies

Clinton in January 1999.9

(Canada, the European Union, and

Israel), Cuba has found ways to work

around the U.S. embargo so as to

Conditions in Cuba Today

weather the demise of the Soviet Union

and more recent storms such as

increases in world energy prices.

Cubans and some foreign observers have

· Economic deprivation is a moderate

long pointed to Castro's health and educa-

tion programs as examples of the success of

but not a major source of social ten-

the revolution. To be sure, when Castro took

sion. It does not appear to be an engine

power in 1959, he inherited a nation with

of political reform.

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