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No. 418

October 31, 2001

Report from Havana

Time for a Reality Check on

U.S. Policy toward Cuba

by Jonathan G. Clarke and William Ratliff

Executive Summary

year to Cuba. Much of that activity violates the spir-

Official U.S. and Cuban depictions of the

it, if not the letter, of U.S. sanctions law.

effects of the U.S. embargo differ notably from

Interviews with leading dissidents also reveal

Cuban economic reality. This report, based on

a preference for engagement with the United

the authors' recent visits to Havana and inter-

States and little support for maintaining the

views with top Cuban officials, dissidents, and

embargo. Moreover, many dissidents oppose

other private citizens, shows that the embargo is

proposed U.S. legislation that would provide aid

not responsible for Cuba's poor economic condi-

to human rights and other activists in Cuba

tion--as Havana claims--nor has it been effective

because it would compromise their indepen-

at achieving Washington's goal of isolating the

dence and legitimacy.

Cuban regime.

Current U.S policy toward Cuba is based on

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the

historical inertia, domestic political calculations,

consequent loss of massive aid and trade prefer-

and emotionalism. The embargo will continue to

ences, Cuba has established more developed rela-

be ineffective--especially given dwindling support

tions with the outside world and introduced lim-

for the policy, the ease with which Cuba gets

ited reforms in areas including trade, foreign

around the sanctions, and the ways in which Cuba

investment, and tourism without renouncing

has been adapting to changing world conditions.

socialism. Cuba is thus no longer backsliding,

The United States could help improve Cuba's

but neither is it flourishing.

poor human rights record and reveal Fidel

A dense network of American contacts with

Castro's regime as the main source of Cuba's eco-

Cuba has also developed. About 3,400 American

nomic troubles by lifting the trade and investment

business visits to Cuba took place last year, and

embargo, restoring the right of Americans to trav-

80,000 Americans are visiting the island annually,

el to Cuba, and rejecting any current or proposed

in addition to thousands of Cuban Americans who,

official aid to groups inside Cuba.

along with other Cuban exiles, remit $1 billion per

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Jonathan G. Clarke, a former British diplomat, is a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

William Ratliff is senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.