Cato Institute
Policy Analysis
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28. Anita Lancaster and Jerry Lehnus, "Declining
Conscription," Wall Street Journal, October 2,
Interest in Military Service: Qualitative Insights,"
1998, p. A1.
Paper presented at "Youth Attitudes toward
20. Quoted in "Lawmakers Debate Reviving the
Military Service," p. A-1.
Draft," unsigned editorial, Dallas Morning News,
29. Wilson, "Selective Draft Could Be Answer."
September 26, 1998.
30. Ernest Blazar, "Trouble Ahead," Washington
21. Quoted in Sig Christenson, "Air Force at 20-
Times, January 27, 1999, p. A10.
Year Low in Recruiting Could Revive Draft,"
Washington Times, July 6, 1999, p. A1.
31. See the testimony of Francis Rush, Statement
at Hearing on Recruiting Issues: Subcommittee
22. Philip Gold, Evasions: The American Way of
on Military Personnel of the House National
Military Service (New York: Paragon House, 1985),
Security Committee, 106th Cong., 1st sess.,
p. 152.
March 18, 1999, p. 6.
23. Quoted in "Overheard," Newsweek, April 22,
32. "Being All They Can Be?" NewsHour with Jim
1991, p. 19.
Lehrer, March 12, 1999, transcript, p. 3.
24. Emmanuel Jarry, "More Cuts in France's
33. Quoted in Brian Mitchell, "Air Force Heads for
Military Scheduled," Washington Times, July 8,
Bumpy Flight," Investor's Business Daily, September
1998, p. A13.
25, 1998, pp. A1, A28.
25. Philip Gold, "Viewpoint: Resuming Peacetime
34. Dave Moniz, "Skilled Workers Bailing Out of
Conscription Bad Idea That Would Clog Courts,"
Military in Droves," The State (Columbia, S.C.),
News Tribune, November 29, 1998, p. B13.
October 2, 1998, p. A10.
26. Quoted in Thomas Ricks and Carla Anne
35. Steven Lee Myers, "Good Times Mean Hard
Robbins, "America Is Learning to Play World Cop,
Sell for the Military," New York Times, November 3,
but Only Reluctantly," Wall Street Journal, May 21,
1998, p. A19. For complete recruiting results, see
1998, p. A1.
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for
27. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Office of
Public Affairs, "Fiscal Year 1998 Recruiting
Force Management Policy, Population in the
Achieves 97 Percent of Goal for Quantity while
Military Services: Fiscal Year 1996 (Washington:
Exceeding Quality Benchmarks," News release,
U.S. Department of Defense, December 1997),
no. 559-98, U. S. Department of Defense, October
p. 2-1; and George Wilson, "The All-Volunteer
28, 1998.
Force Is in Danger," Air Force Times, April 13,
36. Quoted in James Crawley, "Shortage of Sailors
1998, p. 62. For a detailed discussion of the rela-
Erodes Navy's Readiness for Combat," San Diego
tionship between the propensity to enlist and
Union-Tribune, September 2, 1998, p. A1.
actual enlistment, see Jerald Bachman et al.,
"Does Enlistment Propensity Predict Accession?
37. Quoted in Steven Komarow, "As Iraq Looms,
High School Seniors' Plans and Subsequent
Shortfalls Hastening Downward Slide," USA
Behavior," Armed Forces & Society 25, no. 1 (Fall
Today, November 10, 1998, p. 1A.
1998): 59­80.
By law the armed services can recruit anyone
38. Quoted in Ernest Blazar, "Inside the Ring,"
between the ages of 17 and 35 who meets mini-
Washington Times, December 2, 1998, p. A10.
mal AFQT standards--a pool of 69 million. But,
in practice 94 percent of recruits are under 25
39. See, for example, Ernest Blazar, "Inside the
and 82 percent are under 21. The armed services
Ring," April 6, 1999, p. A8.
also unilaterally set much higher AFQT stan-
dards. By the time those in college and those
40.  Patrick  Pexton,  "Dwindling  Ranks,"
with medically disqualifying conditions are dis-
Washington Post, September 24, 1998, p. A25.
counted, the relevant pool runs about 2 million.
Andrea Boyer and Edward Schmitz, "Socio-
41. Bradley Graham and Eric Pianin, "Military
Demographics and Military Recruiting: The
Readiness, Morale Show Strain," Washington Post,
Role of Veterans," Paper presented at the con-
August 13, 1998, p. A28. See also Ernest Blazar,
ference of the International Military Testing
"Willing and Able--But Ready?" Washington Times,
Association, "Youth Attitudes toward Military
October 4, 1998, pp. A1, A6.
Service in the Post­Cold War Era," San Antonio,
Texas, 1996 (Defense Manpower Data Center
42. Ricks and Robbins, p. A6.
Report No. 97-001), pp. K-1 through K-2.
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