The notion that
sions similar to the population as a
imal. More than 3.8 million men and women
whole, but with the top quartile of
turn 18 every year (that number will exceed 4
the military is
the population underrepresented.
million early next century). Assume a draft of
dominated by
While the socioeconomic status of
men only: just 9.5 percent of those eligible
ignorant minori-
recruits is slightly lower than the
would end up in uniform, which is a far lower
percentage than in years past.105 (See
general population, today's recruits
ties and lower-
have higher levels of education, mea-
Appendix, Table 10.) Moreover, some ana-
class whites is
sured aptitudes, and reading skills
lysts have criticized the "blatant discrimina-
than their civilian counterparts.104
both grossly
tion" of male-only registration and conscrip-
tion.106 In a draft of men and women, the
offensive and a
percentage of those chosen from the avail-
As stated earlier, it is true that fewer
ridiculous myth.
able pool would be less than 5 percent.
American political leaders have served in the
Whether 5 or 10 percent, such a small,
military today than served in the past. But
selective sample would include only a few
that largely reflects the passing of the World
more college graduates and sons of the elite
War II generation--a very high percentage of
(along with less-able men whom the military
young men were drawn into the military
currently rejects) than does the current group
between 1941 and 1945 and again during the
of new enlistees. But the number of con-
Korean War between 1950 and 1953--instead
scripts would fall even further if volunteers
of the end of conscription. World War II
were still accepted--not to accept them would
alone generated 16 million veterans. In con-
be inane. Unless pay for new soldiers were
trast, only 2.5 million men and women
reduced to "cigarette money"--unlikely, given
served in Vietnam. And although most of the
the obvious unfairness of being one of so few
baby boomers in positions of authority
selected--the number of draftees could be as
today--from the president on down--were
low as 10 or 20 thousand annually.107 As a
subject to the draft, many avoided it.
Moreover, the World War II generation
result, the overall change in the representa-
tiveness of the military would be nil.108
was unique in American history; the only
other time an entire generation served in
the military was during the Civil War.
Draft and Foreign Policy
During most of the nation's history, the
Adventurism
military was appropriately small, and the
number of national leaders who had served
in it was few. No ill effects were obvious at
Which kind of force is the most effective
the time: no Praetorian elite grew up among
constraint on foreign policy adventurism?
the military, nor did civilian leaders wan-
Advocates of conscription usually contend
tonly squander soldiers' lives.
that a draft, by imposing casualties on all
Despite the endless--and endlessly fero-
groups in society, limits the inducement for
cious--arguments over representativeness,
foreign intervention. For instance, Joseph
the most important point may be how little
Califano--who worked for Presidents
conscription would affect the composition of
Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter--con-
today's force. Newly enlisted accessions fell
tends that "the all-volunteer force has made
from 405,650 in FY73 to 167,287 in FY95. In
it too easy for a president to order American
FY97 the military added 188,895 new
troops and aircraft into wars and dangerous
`peacekeeping' adventures."109
recruits, or about 13 percent of the total force
of 1.4 million. (See Appendix, Table 9.) Since
Similarly, USA Today columnist Walter
few draftees reenlist, conscription would
Shapiro, a Vietnam dove turned Kosovo
change primarily the composition of this
hawk, worries that "dividing my time
small, transient pool of new recruits.
between upscale enclaves in Manhattan and
And even there the change would be min-
Washington, I do not have any friends
11