A Potpourri of Reasons
age of 2,000 pilots by the year 2002. Highly
skilled airmen as well as officers are leaving
the service.34
Why do advocates of conscription still
argue for a return to the draft?
The Navy calculates that it has a world-
wide shortage of 18,000 sailors. On average,
Poor Recruiting Results
ships sail with only 90 percent of their offi-
cial complement.35 Most vessels are rated
The proportion of 16- to 21-year-old
men who enlisted in the military dropped
only at the second-highest level of readi-
from 34 percent in 1991 to 27 percent in
ness, C-2. Adm. Archie Clemins, Pacific
1997.27 That is actually a slight rise from 26
Fleet commander-in-chief, observed last
percent in 1996, a historic low.28 Last year
fall, "This summer was tough on us."36 The
Navy recruitment fell short by 7,000
nuclear aircraft carrier USS Enterprise has a
sailors--or 12 percent--prompting George
crew of 2,900 instead of the preferred 3,150.
Wilson to declare, "When we were downsiz-
Capt. Evan Chanik explains that "I can do
ing, the problem didn't show up because we
my missions" but worries that "I have less
didn't need a lot of new people. But now we
`sponge' if I get into sustained, high-tempo
operations."37 Adm. Harold Gehman, head
do, and we can't get them. The kids have
too many other options."29
of the U.S. Atlantic Command, seemed a bit
less confident. When asked by reporters if
Although the Army fell only 1 percent
the Navy could execute its mission, he
short of its recruiting target in 1998, it did
responded, "It all depends on what the def-
have difficulties in filling particular special-
inition of `it' is."38
ties. Unfortunately, in 1999, that service is
having a more difficult time; there is specula-
Manpower shortages and readiness prob-
tion that the Army could end up 10,000
lems are evident in a number of Army divi-
under its desired strength by the end of the
sions--ones that would be deployed in any
year.30 Preliminary results suggest that the
war.39 Patrick Pexton reported in the
Air Force will also fall short.31
Washington Post that the Army is suffering
shortages of armor and infantry.40
Unfortunately, the problems associated
with low recruitment are only going to
Pressure from Constant Deployments
increase. The Army plans to recruit 75,000
new soldiers in 1999 but 84,000 in 2000.
The Pentagon is having difficulty keep-
Army Secretary Louis Caldera worries that
ing up with the rising tempo of activity and
"the real challenge is going to come in
new commitments. The Army has deployed
future years."32
The armed
overseas 29 times during the past decade
compared with just 10 times during the
services are having
previous 40 years.41 The number of Air
Poor Retention
a difficult time
The armed services are having a difficult
Force and Navy missions is up as well.
time holding pilots and other selected skill
Moreover, those numbers do not include
holding pilots
grades, such as computer technicians. For
"minor" deployments, such as sending 59
and other select-
instance, the Air Force is currently retaining
servicemen to Kenya in January 1998 to
feed flood victims.42
ed skill grades,
only half the number of pilots it needs; Maj.
Joe Roeder, the Air Force's pilot retention
The impact of that high tempo of opera-
such as computer
manager, admits, "Now we're left with a
tions on equipment maintenance, spare
technicians.
severe shortage of young pilots."33 Even
parts, and weapon supplies, as well as on
soldiers' combat skills is obvious. Moreover,
annual bonuses of up to $22,000 haven't
constant deployment is also believed to be
solved the problem. To the contrary, the sep-
the most important reason for declining
aration rate rose 9 percent in 1998. The ser-
retention of Air Force pilots.43 Continual
vice is now losing three pilots for every two
that it adds and estimates a potential short-
operations are affecting the Navy in a simi-
4