<<  <  >  >>

priately named Mischief Reef has generated sharp

and North Korea," in North Korea after Kim Il Sung,

criticism from the Philippines, whose exclusive eco-

ed. Dae-Sook Suh and Chae-Jin Lee (Boulder,

nomic zone contains the islands. Manila has so far

Colo.: Lynne Reiner, 1998), pp. 123­45.

unsuccessfully called upon ASEAN and the United

66. Bandow, Tripwire, pp. 162­63. A new report

Nations to intervene in the dispute. Philippine

from the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National

defense secretary Orlando Mercado has also point-

Security, the South Korean Foreign Ministry's

ed to his nation's mutual defense treaty with the

think tank, advocates that Washington perma-

United States and argued that it is in the interest of

nently station 5,000 soldiers on the peninsula in

America and allied states "that this particular area

order to, according to the Korea Times, "guarantee

be kept free as a sea-lane from the dominant con-

its automatic involvement in a regional conflict."

trol of one power." Quoted in Michael Richardson,

"U.S. Troop Presence Depends on Role in

"Philippines Is Stymied in Dispute with China,"

Unification: Report."

International Herald Tribune, January 21, 1999, p. 4.

Washington has so far, appropriately, remained

67. Security Strategy 1998, p. 62.

aloof.

68. Ibid., p. 20.

76. Security Strategy 1998, p. 36.

69. Ted  Galen  Carpenter,  "Washington's

77. Ibid., p. 30.

Smothering Strategy: American Interests in East

78. Ibid., p. 65.

Asia," World Policy Journal 14, no. 4 (Winter

1997­98): 22.

79. For a general view, see Ted Galen Carpenter,

70. Security Strategy 1998, p. 21. Fear of North Korea

"Managing a Great Power Relationship: The

has grown since the North's recent missile launch,

United States, China and East Asian Security,"

causing a new debate over Japan's defense policy.

Journal of Strategic Studies 12, no. 1 (March 1998):

"The Call to Arms," The Economist, February

1­20.

27­March 5, 1999, pp. 23­25; and Michiyo

80. See generally Carpenter, "Let Taiwan Defend

Nakamoto, "LDP Debates Military Strikes

Itself."

Strategy," Financial Times, February 26, 1999, p. 4.

71. Bandow, "Okinawa."

81. See, for example, ibid., pp. 3­4.

72. Quoted in Kenneth Pyle, "The Japanese

82. In fact, the administration's policy of "strategic

Question," in Japan and the World: Considerations for

ambiguity" is extraordinarily irresponsible.

U.S. Policymakers (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian

Washington seems to be saying that the United

and Soviet Research, 1990), p. 7.

States might be willing to go war to protect

Taiwan, but who knows? The administration obvi-

73. See, for example, Ted Galen Carpenter,

ously hopes it can deter China on the cheap, with-

"Paternalism and Dependence: The U.S.­Japanese

out having to actually threaten to use force.

Security Relationship," Cato Institute Policy

However, this course risks a repeat of Sir Edward

Analysis no. 244, November 1, 1995, pp. 20­23; and

Grey's disastrous diplomacy on the eve of World

Frank Ching, "A Partnership under Strain," Far

War I. Britain's foreign secretary secretly commit-

Eastern Economic Review, March 17, 1994, p. 33. The

ted his nation to assist France without warning

media in both nations play a role. Stanley Budner

Germany of London's position, thereby making

and Ellis Krauss, "Newspaper Coverage of

both continental powers more willing to risk war.

U.S.­Japan Frictions," Asian Survey 35, no. 4 (April

83. Today a Chinese invasion would be an extraor-

1995): 336­56.

dinarily risky affair. U.S. Department of Defense,

74. See, for example, Doug Bandow, "ANZUS: A

"The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait,"

Case of Strategy Obsolescence," in Collective Security

Report to Congress pursuant to FY99 appropria-

or Strategic Independence? Alternative Strategies for the

tions bill, 1999.

Future, ed. Ted Galen Carpenter (Lexington, Mass.:

84. See, for example, Martin Sieff, "Passage to

Lexington Books, 1989), pp. 121­32; and Ted

India," National Review, June 22, 1998.

Galen Carpenter, "Pursuing a Strategic Divorce:

The U.S. and the ANZUS Alliance," Cato Institute

85. The Philippines undertook a serious military

Policy Analysis no. 67, February 27, 1986.

modernization program only after the United

75. The latter are claimed in whole or in part by

States departed, when it became impossible for

Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan,

Manila to continue relying on Washington for its

and Vietnam. Chinese construction on the appro-

defense. Tony Tassell, "Spratly Nerves Force Manila

19