America does
tool for weakening centralized communist
possesses the world's second largest popula-
control in the PRC.
tion, a sizable military, and an embryonic
not have suffi-
nuclear arsenal, as an important future coun-
cient interests at
Enabling Taiwan to Defend Itself
terweight to China.84 India, in combination
stake to risk war
Washington also needs to repair its badly
with a tough-minded Taiwan, a somewhat
flawed policy toward the ROC.80 Founded on
more heavily armed Japan, and a unified
with a nuclear-
Korea with potent military forces, would help
the island of Taiwan after the communist vic-
armed China over
establish a new regional balance of power
tory on the mainland in 1949, the ROC long
Taiwan.
that would allow the United States to further
claimed to be the legitimate government of
distance itself from incendiary but local dis-
all China. Seven years after Richard Nixon
putes.
made his historic trip to the PRC in 1972, the
The alternative--and apparently the pre-
United States dropped diplomatic recogni-
ferred course of American policymakers
tion of the ROC and most other nations fol-
across the political spectrum--is for
lowed suit. Since then, Taiwan has existed
Washington to discourage China's neighbors
uneasily at the periphery of global poli-
from playing serious military roles. Such a
tics--an economic powerhouse but a diplo-
strategy creates the specter of a regional
matic midget.
power vacuum that only the United States
As noted earlier, the ROC's increasing
can prevent. That approach obviously
behavior as a sovereign state caused the PRC
increases the influence of American diplo-
to rattle its sabers--or, more accurately, test
mats and might deter conflict--as long as
its missiles--in early 1996. Beijing's threats
Washington's willingness to intervene is
led Washington to implicitly threaten mili-
believed. But it also ensures that the United
tary intervention should hostilities erupt.
States will be involved in any fight, no matter
Unfortunately, the Clinton policy package
how marginal to America's interests.85
increases the threat of war. The United States
opposes self-determination by a people who
Moreover, turning East Asia into a starkly
have built a highly successful capitalist and
bipolar arena creates perverse regional incen-
democratic society--as President Clinton
tives. China could turn out to be more
made all too clear during his trip to the PRC
aggressive if it faced no regional constraints
in the summer of 1998. Moreover, despite its
and didn't believe that America was willing to
promise to continue selling arms to Taiwan,
risk Los Angeles for Taipei, Tokyo, or Seoul.
Washington drags its feet on key weapons
At the same time, the belief that they have U.S.
systems and thereby risks denying that com-
protection may cause China's neighbors to be
munity the ability to defend itself. Yet U.S.
more obdurate in any dispute. The incongru-
officials continue to indicate that the United
ous result would be an increased chance of
States will intervene if war breaks out.81 That
conflict.
is a dangerous, incoherent policy.82
America does not have sufficient interests
Avoid Unnecessary
at stake to risk war with a nuclear-armed
Dangers
China over Taiwan. However, Washington,
after making clear that it believes the status
of Taiwan, whether reunified with mainland
The United States should avoid dangerous
China or independent, is up to the people on
flashpoints where only tangential security
both sides of the Taiwan Strait, should sell
interests, if that, are involved. Most of all,
the ROC whatever weapons, such as attack
Washington should not worry unduly about
submarines, that Taipei desires to purchase
the sort of quarrels that are inevitable in any
for its own defense.83
region with nations as diverse as those in East
Asia. The daisy chain between political
Encouraging Strategic Counterweights
repression in Cambodia or civil unrest in
Indonesia and widespread war or trade dis-
Washington should view India, which
14