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even then, the Department of Defense does

probably could not all be deployed at once

not use the term "enemy," or even "potential

because some would be engaged in mainte-

enemy," but potential "peer competitor." Do

nance or training. Because limited resources

we really need large standing armies for

would probably constrain the number of car-

potential peer competitors? An affirmative

riers under construction at any one time and

response becomes less likely when you look

because it takes five years to build a carrier,

at the potential peer competitors. There are

the West would have at least a 15- to 20-year

really only four: Japan, Russia, Germany, and

warning.

China. Japan and Germany are allies, but

In sum, the main rationale for maintain-

there are other reasons to quickly eliminate

ing the readiness to fight major peer com-

them as potential threats. First, neither is

petitors no longer exists and will not exist

quite the economic power it was just a few

again for at least 15 years. There simply is no

years ago; second, both have aging popula-

major threat on the horizon requiring a large

tions; third and more important, neither has

standing army.

the slightest inclination to rearm. Both

Less sinister than threats from potential

nations recently experienced domestic con-

peer competitors are MTW threats--what use

troversy when deploying only a few troops for

to be called "half" wars during the Cold War.

multinational operations.

With the demise of the Soviet Union, it is

There are some legitimate fears of a resur-

amazing how those old "half " wars have now

gent Russia. Right-wing nationalists and for-

become MTWs. George Orwell would be

mer communists are waiting in the wings to

proud. There are--or at least were--two legiti-

take over after the tenure of Boris Yeltsin. But

mate MTW threats, but again they have

given the sorry condition of both the Russian

greatly diminished over the past few years.

economy and the Russian military--even

Those threats are from North Korea and Iraq

though Russia still has a formidable military-

or Iran in the Middle East. The worst scenario

industrial base left over from the Cold War--

for which the Pentagon currently plans is two

many years would be required to rearm and

nearly simultaneous MTWs. But Saddam's

then retrain Russian forces. Any professional

army is still in shambles from Desert Storm,

military that cannot defeat Chechen guerril-

Iran's military has still not recovered from its

las is not worth worrying about. While it's

conflict with Iraq, and North Korea cannot

true that Russia still has some 20,00 nuclear

even feed itself. In both the Persian Gulf and

weapons, that is a different type of military

Korea, the economies of threatened states

problem that does not require large U.S.

exceed those of the potential aggressors sev-

There is simply

standing forces

eral times over, which gives the defending

This leaves China, which is on everyone's

states an advantage in dealing with those

no major threat

list as the next major superpower. But,

modest threats. Although these are still dan-

on the horizon

despite dire warnings, China's rise to that sta-

gerous regional situations, none of them

tus is many years away. The press focuses on

poses a serious threat requiring a large stand-

requiring a large

the pockets of the antiquated Chinese mili-

ing U.S. army. Rogue countries, using terror-

standing military.

tary that are gradually being modernized.

ism and longer range missiles armed with

About once a month, for example, someone

chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons,

warns that China is building an aircraft carri-

could still pose threats to the United States.

er. Even if this warning were true--which it is

Again, the answer is not a large standing

not--such a development would be almost

army. Finally, it should be noted that the sce-

militarily insignificant.33 At least three or

nario of two nearly simultaneous MTWs has

never actually happened.

four--and probably five or six--small carriers

There have been frequent responses to

would be required to give China a formidable

crises, such as the Somali intervention and

power projection capability in the region.

rescue missions in Liberia. Leaving aside the

Small carriers have limited firepower and

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