244. J. W. Anderson, "Two New Reports Project
Administration Forecasts," Cato Institute
Much Higher Climate Costs Than White House
Briefing Paper no. 44, March 11, 1999, p. 8.
Estimates," Resources for the Future, June 11, 1998,
235. Ibid.
www.weathervane.rff.org/negtable/accfd.html.
245. "G-8 Members Take Swing at U.S. Plan for
236. Amory Lovins and L. H. Lovins, Climate:
Greenhouse Emissions Trading," Electric Power
Making Sense and Making Money (Old Snowmass,
Alert, April 22, 1998, p. 26; and Michael Toman
Colo.: Rocky Mountain Institute, 1997), p. 2.
and Jean-Charles Hourcade, "International
237. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-
Workshop Addresses Emissions Trading among
Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios
`Annex B' Countries," Resources for the Future,
of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-
Weathervane Web site, August 11, 1998. See also
Efficient and Low Carbon Technologies by 2010 and
the full-page advertisement protesting the "U.S.
Beyond (Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
unrestricted trading plan," described as a "loop-
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific
hole that will undermine the Kyoto global
Northwest National Laboratory, National Renew-
warming treaty," by 10 environmental organiza-
able Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National
tions, including the Sierra Club, Friends of the
Laboratory, September 1997).
Earth, the National Wildlife Federation, and
Ozone Action. New York Times, June 11, 1998,
238. Council of Economic Advisers.
p. C28.
239. Ronald Sutherland, "A Critique of the `Five
246. William Niskanen, "Too Much, Too Soon: Is
Lab' Study," American Petroleum Institute,
a Global Warming Treaty a Rush to Judgment?"
Washington, June 1998.
Jobs & Capital, Fall 1997, pp. 1718.
240. EIA, Monthly Energy Review, June 1998, p. 16.
247. Gro Harlem Brundtland, Our Common
Future (Geneva: World Commission on Environ-
241. The low estimate is from the Department of
ment and Development, 1987), p. 28. Economic
Energy. Annual Energy Outlook 1998, p. 52. The
growth has become a plank in mainstream sus-
high estimate is from Michael Maloney and
tainable development theory to eliminate pover-
Robert McCormick, Customer Choice, Customer
ty pollution. See President's Council on
Value: Lessons for the Electric Industry (Washington:
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Development
Citizens for a Sound Economy, 1996), p. x.
(Washington: Government Printing Office, 1996),
p. iv. Al Gore, Earth in the Balance (New York:
242. Economists Maloney and McCormick esti-
Plume, 1992), p. xv, also prioritizes economic
mate that electricity generation could increase as
growth.
much as 25 percent without any new capacity,
which would lower rates for end-users between 13
248. The World Resources Institute et al., World
percent and 25 percent. In the long run, rates
Resources 199899 (New York: Oxford University
could fall by more than 40 percent with a similar
Press, 1998), pp. 6566, 8081.
increase in output, both from fully utilized exist-
ing plants and new (gas-fired) capacity generating
249. Simon, p. 162; and Mark Mills, "Healthy
electricity at 3 cents per kWh. Maloney and
Choices in Technologies," Study for the Western
McCormick, pp. viiix.
Fuels Association, April 1997.
243. The "effective international trading"
250. "Ever Greater Use of New Technology,"
assumption was stated by Janet Yellen, chair,
Petroleum Economist, December 1997, pp. 817.
Council of Economic Advisers, in The Kyoto
Protocol and Its Economic Implications, p. 35.
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