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Dioxide Cause Climate Change?" Proceedings of

tion with the author, December 8, 1998; and

the National Academy of Sciences, August 1997, pp.

Patrick Michaels, Sound and Fury: The Science and

8335­42. For evidence of a weak positive feed-

Politics of Global Warming (Washington: Cato

back, see R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell,

Institute, 1992), p. 187.

"How Dry Is the Tropical Free Troposphere?

215. Richard Kerr, "Greenhouse Forecasting Still

Implications for Global Warming Theory,"

Cloudy," Science, May 16, 1997, pp. 1040­42; Fred

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, July

Pearce, "Greenhouse Wars," New Scientist, July

1997, pp. 1097­1106.

19, 1997, pp. 38­43; and James Hansen,

224. IPCC, Climate Change 1995: The Science of

"Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era,"

Climate Change, pp. 27, 144­45, 172, 294. See

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,

also David Eastering et al., "Maximum and

October 1998, pp. 12753­58.

Minimum Temperature Trends for the Globe,"

Science, July 18, 1997, pp. 364­67; and Thomas

216. S. Fan et al., "A Large Terrestrial Sink in

Karl et al., "Trends in High-Frequency Climate

North America Implied by Atmospheric and

Variability in the Twentieth Century," Nature,

Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Data and Models,"

September 21, 1995, pp. 217­20.

Science, October 16, 1998, pp. 442­46.

217. "[The NCAR] 2°C warming is very similar to

225. "A Heated Controversy," The Economist,

a number of GCMs that have recently repeated

August 15, 1998, pp. 66­68.

their sensitivity simulations." Jeff Kiehl, head,

226. IPCC, Climate Change 1995: The Science of

Climate Modeling Section, National Center for

Climate Change, pp. 29­30, 173.

Atmospheric Research, communication with the

author, August 14, 1998.

227. Ibid., p. 7.

218. IPCC, Climate Change, pp. xxx, 138­39; IPCC,

228. Council of Economic Advisers, Administra-

Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change,

tion Economic Analysis: The Kyoto Protocol and the

pp. 5­6; and World Climate Report, January 5, 1998,

President's Policies to Address Climate Change, July

pp. 1­2. Steven Schneider's statement in 1990

1998, p. 11, http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/

that model forecasts of temperature could as eas-

New/html/Kyoto.pdf.

ily be revised upward as downward has been

proven wrong to date--the revisions of the IPCC

229. T. M. L. Wigley, "The Kyoto Protocol: CO ,

and most models have been downward. Steven

2

C H4, and Climate Implications," Geophysical

Schneider, "The Science of Climate-Modeling and

Research Letters, July 1, 1998, pp. 2285­88.

a Perspective on the Global-Warming Debate,"

Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report, p. 60.

230. Jerry Mahlman, director, Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University,

219. Patrick Michaels, "Long Hot Year: Latest

quoted in David Malakoff, "Thirty Kyotos

Science Debunks Global Warming Hysteria,"

Needed to Control Warming," Science, December

Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 329, December

19, 1997, p. 2048.

31, 1998, pp. 2, 5.

231. Wigley, p. 2287.

220. John Houghton, Global Warming: The Complete

Briefing (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,

232. In the United States in 1990, 83 percent of

1997), p. 85; and Gerald North, "Global Climate

greenhouse emissions were from fossil-fuel con-

Change," in The Impact of Global Warming on Texas,

sumption. EIA, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S.

ed. Gerald North (Austin: University of Texas

Energy Markets and Economic Activity (Washington:

Press, 1995), p. 7.

U.S. Department of Energy, 1998), p. xiii.

221. James Hansen et al., "A Common-Sense

233. Ibid. Sink creation and a weighting of the six

Climate Index: Is Climate Changing Noticeably?"

greenhouse gases for the United States would

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, April

lower the obligation to 3 percent below 1990 lev-

1998, p. 4113.

els according to the Clinton administration. The

Kyoto Protocol and Its Economic Implications, Hearing

222. Ibid., pp. 4118­20.

before the Subcommittee on Energy and Power of the

House Committee on Commerce, 105th Cong., 2d

223. Warming estimates would be reduced by

sess. (Washington: Government Printing Office,

either a negative, a neutral, or a weak positive

1998), pp. 58­59.

water vapor feedback in climate models. For a

negative-to-neutral feedback hypothesis, see

234. Peter VanDoren, "The Costs of Reducing

Richard Lindzen, "Can Increasing Carbon

Carbon  Emissions:  An  Examination  of

50