180. Matthew Wald, "In a Step toward a Better
Electric," in Utility Strategies for Marketing
Car, Company Uses Fuel Cell to Get Energy
Compressed Natural Gas: Proceedings (Arlington, Va.:
from Gasoline," New York Times, October 21,
Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition, 1991).
1997, p. A10.
165. CEC, Fuels Report 1995, p. 53.
181. Rebecca Blumenstein, "Auto Industry
Reaches Surprising Consensus: It Needs New En-
166. "NGVs Seen as Average, or Worse, in FedEx
gines," Wall Street Journal, January 5, 1998, p. A1.
Test," Gas Daily, April 17, 1995, p. 3. The test was
done for 1992-model vehicles.
182. California Environmental Protection
167. Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition et al., NGV
Agency, "Proposed Amendments to California
Industry Strategy, May 1995, p. 16.
Exhaust, Evaporative, and Onboard Refueling
Vapor Recovery Emission Standards and Test
168. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, p. 46. The
Procedures for Passenger Cars, Light-Duty Trucks
premium without subsidies is an estimate from
and Medium-Duty Vehicles," November 5, 1997,
Harry Chernoff, senior economist, Science
p. 11.
Applications International Corporation, commu-
183. "The Third Age of Fuel," The Economist,
nication with the author, October 13, 1998.
October 25, 1997, p. 16. Optimistic forecasts for
169. Within the alternative-fuel-capable family,
hydrogen vehicles have a long--and wrong--histo-
methanol (M85) has a 5 percent market share
ry. For example, a study by Frost and Sullivan in
with 21,000 vehicles, ethanol a 3 percent share
1989 predicted "significant movement" away
with 11,000 vehicles, and electricity a 1 percent
from fossil fuels to hydrogen by the year 2000. J.
share with 5,000 vehicles. EIA, Alternatives to
E. Sinor Consultants, The Clean Fuels Report
Traditional Transportation Fuels 1996 (Washington:
(Niwot, Colo.: J. E. Sinor, 1990), pp. 1023.
Government Printing Office, 1997), p. 16.
184. American Automobile Manufacturers
170. Report of the National Fuels and Energy Study
Association,
World Motor Vehicle Data
Group, pp. 29798.
(Washington: AAMA, 1997), pp. 3, 8.
171. Cannon, pp. 910; Joseph Norbeck et al.,
185. EIA, Annual Energy Review 1997, pp. 177, 211.
Hydrogen Fuel for Surface Transportation (Warren-
186. A current challenge for reformulated gaso-
dale, Pa: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1996),
line is the alleged contamination of drinking
pp. 397406.
water by a popular oxygenate, methyl tertiary
172. C. E. Thomas et al., "Market Penetration
butyl ether (MTBE), a problem currently being
Scenarios for Fuel Cell Vehicles," International
debated in the state. If the problem is found to be
Journal of Hydrogen Energy 23, no. 10 (1998): 949.
more associated with leaking from underground
gasoline tanks than with the fuel additive itself,
173. Ibid.
the problem will be self-correcting under existing
regulation.
174. Ibid., p. 957.
187. CEC, California Energy Plan 1997, p. 30.
175. Ibid., p. 949. The authors add, "Government
alone has the charter to develop those technolo-
188. Ibid., p. 29.
gies that will benefit society, including reduced
environmental impact and reduced dependence
189. Robert Bradley Jr., "California DSM: A
on imported fossil fuels."
Pyrrhic Victory for Energy Efficiency?" Public
Utilities Fortnightly, October 1, 1995, p. 41.
176. Ibid., p. 963. This assumes that, on the basis
of a 1995 actual 200 million fleet, the total U.S.
190. Ibid., p. 12. The "sustainable changes" refer
fleet could be as high as 250 million vehicles in
to open-access transmission under which cus-
this period.
tomers can purchase their own electricity and out-
source their entire energy function to energy ser-
177. Alliance to Save Energy et al., p. 76.
vice companies.
178. Keith Naughton, "Detroit's Impossible
191. Paul Wuebben, Statement, in Alternative
Dream?" Business Week, March 2, 1998, p. 68.
Fuels: Hearing before the House Subcommittee on
Energy and Commerce, 103d Cong., 1st sess.
179. Steve Plotkin, communication with the
(Washington: Government Printing Office, 1994),
author, July 27, 1998.
p. 7.
48