Academic Publishers, 1996), pp. 12429.
than just increasing extraction percentages and
locating new reservoirs of a "fixed" (in a mathe-
29. Environmental Protection Agency, National
matical, not an economic, sense) biogenic sup-
Air Quality Emissions Trends Report, 1997 (Wash-
ply of decayed plants and animals. Some scien-
ington: EPA, 1999), www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/
tists suspect that oil and gas may have abiogenic
trends97/emtrnd.html; and David Mintz, statisti-
origins deep in the earth. Carbon, some suspect,
cian, Environmental Protection Agency, commu-
can move upward from the earth's crust to
nication with the author, February 16, 1999.
replenish the near-surface supplies of petrole-
um and gas accessible by the drill bit. If so, sub-
30. Available at www.epa.gov/airprogm/oar/
stantial upward revisions would need to be
aqtrnd97/trendsfs.html.
made to the resource base, replacing estimates
in the hundreds of years with estimates in the
31. Ibid.
thousands of years, or even making probable
resource estimates obsolete. See Thomas Gold,
32. Ben Lieberman, "Air Pollution--The Inside
"An Unexplored Habitat for Life in the
Story," Regulation, Spring 1998, pp. 1213.
Universe," American Scientist, SeptemberOctober
1997, pp. 40811. Empirical support for that
33. Quoted in ibid. See also Ben Lieberman,
hypothesis is described in "Gas Traces Found,
"The First Family's Asthma Problems," CEI on
Siljan Well Aims for 24,600 Ft.," Oil and Gas
Point, February 26, 1999.
Journal, February 2, 1987, p. 18.
34. EIA, Annual Energy Review 1997 (Washington:
19. Adelman, The Genie Out of the Bottle, p. 22.
Department of Energy, 1998), pp. 211, 313.
20. Douglas Bohi and Michael Toman,
35. Ibid., p. 9.
Analyzing Nonrenewable Resource Supply
(Washington: Resources for the Future, 1984),
36. Ibid., p. 315.
p. 139.
37. Data Resource International, Energy Choices in
21. Richard O'Neill et al., "Shibboleths, Loaves
a Competitive Era (Alexandria, Va.: Center for
and Fishes: Some Updated Musings on Future
Energy and Economic Development, 1995). p. 3-3.
Oil and Natural Gas Markets," U.S. Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission, Office of
38. Natural gas combined-cycle units emit
Economic Policy, discussion paper, December 31,
between 50 percent and 100 percent less pollu-
1996, p. 22.
tants than a similarly sized coal plant with today's
best technologies. Bradley, "Renewable Energy,"
22. M. A. Adelman, "Trends in the Price and
pp. 5052.
Supply of Oil," in The State of Humanity, ed.
Julian Simon (Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell,
39. Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen,
1995), p. 292.
Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution
(New York: W. W. Norton, 1994), pp. 9192; and
23. Chevron, for example, failed to meet its $6 bil-
Ross Gelbspan, The Heat Is On (New York:
lion capital budget for oil exploration and pro-
Addison-Wesley, 1997), pp. 8, 18789.
duction in 1997 because of a lack of qualified
staff, not drilling prospects. Loren Fox, "Help
40. Robert L. Bradley Jr., "Defining Renewables as
Wanted: Oil-Industry Professionals," Wall Street
`Green' Not Necessarily Final Verdict," Natural Gas
Journal, December 26, 1997, p. B4.
Week, September 15, 1997, p. 2.
24. Ballonoff, p. 21.
41. Christopher Flavin, Comments at a confer-
ence on the Department of Energy National
25. Robert L. Bradley Jr., The Mirage of Oil Protection
Energy Modeling System, March 30, 1998,
(Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1989),
Washington, D.C. Flavin would prefer distributed
pp. 12939.
solar to distributed natural gas, however.
26. Robert L. Bradley Jr., "What Now for U.S. Energy
42. James Flink, The Automobile Age (Cambridge,
Policy? A Free-Market Perspective," Cato Institute
Mass.: MIT Press, 1988), p. 136.
Policy Analysis no. 145, January 29, 1991.
43. American Automobile Manufacturers
27. Bradley, The Mirage of Oil Protection, pp. 13966.
Association, "Automakers Have Made Great
Strides in Reducing Emissions," www.aama.com/
28. Douglas Bohi and Michael Toman, The
environmental/autoemissions3.html.
Economics of Energy Security (Boston: Kluwer
42