<<  <  >  >>

EIA, Nuclear Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Report

Notes

1997 (Washington: U.S. Department of Energy,

to Policy Analysis No. 341

1997), p. 103.

6. Jack Belcher, "The Fourth Fossil Fuel," Hart's

The author would like to thank Harry Chernoff

Energy Market, October 1996, pp. 24­27; Peter

(Science Applications International Corpora-

Eisen, "Orimulsion Gets Badly Needed Break in

tion), Michael Lynch (Massachusetts Institute

Europe," Oil Daily, February 27, 1998, p. 3; and

of Technology), Lee Papayoti (Enron Corp.),

"Orimulsion Gets Break in India," Oil Daily, July

Jerry Taylor (Cato Institute), and Tom Tanton

10, 1998, p. 7.

(California Energy Commission) for helpful

comments.

7. Safaa Founda, "Liquid Fuels from Natural

Gas," Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 92­95.

1. Joseph Stanislaw, "Emerging Global Energy

Companies: Eye on the 21st Century," Cambridge

8. Martin Quinlan, "Gas-to-Liquid Processes

Energy Research Associates, 1995, p. 6.

Approaching Commercial Viability," Petroleum

Economist, December 1997, pp. 18­20.

2. World non-fossil-fuel consumption of 15 per-

cent in 1996 was composed of nuclear at 6 per-

9. For an example of a vegetable-oil-powered

cent; hydropower at 8 percent; and wind, solar,

motor vehicle in recent use, see Julian Simon, The

geothermal, and biopower at 1.5 percent. Energy

Ultimate Resource 2 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton

Information Administration, International Energy

University Press, 1996), p. 564. Crop oil is also

Outlook 1998 (Washington: U.S. Department of

mentioned by Simon, pp. 16, 181.

Energy, 1998), p. 135. Wood or dung (biomass)

burned for home heating or cooking, not counted

10. Michael Lynch, Facing the Elephant: Oil Market

as energy usage in this breakout, would add

Evaluation and Future Oil Crises (Boulder, Colo.:

approximately  5  percent  to  this  total.

International Research Center for Energy and

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

Economic Development, 1998), p. 2.

Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and

Mitigation (Cambridge: Cambridge University

11. EIA, International Energy Outlook 1998, pp. 3, 38.

Press, 1996), p. 83.

12. See endnote 5 for citations on reserve revi-

3. Robert L. Bradley Jr.,"Renewable Energy: Not

sions.

Cheap, Not `Green,'" Cato Institute Policy

Analysis, no. 280, August 27, 1997, pp. 53­55;

13. See the technology articles in American Oil and

and Paul Ballonoff, Energy: Ending the Never-

Gas Reporter 41, nos. 4 and 7 (April and July 1998).

Ending Crisis (Washington: Cato Institute, 1997),

pp. 52­56.

14. Conference brochure, "Deepwater '98," Third

Annual Conference sponsored by the Strategic

4. M. A. Adelman, The Genie Out of the Bottle: World

Research Institute, October 26­28, 1998.

Oil since 1970 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,

1995), pp. 101­5, 163­66, 177­78, 189­90, 205­8,

15. Arthur Andersen and Co., Oil & Gas Reserve

211­13, 217, 220­22, 249, 253, 273, 283­84.

Disclosures (Houston, Tex.: Arthur Andersen,

1985), p. S-41; and Arthur Andersen and Co., Oil

5. Energy Information Administration, Inter-

& Gas Reserve Disclosures (Houston, Tex.: Arthur

national Energy Annual 1996 (Washington: U.S.

Andersen, 1997), p. 10.

Department of Energy, 1998), pp. 13, 26, 31, 109,

111; EIA, International Energy Outlook 1998, pp.

16. IPCC, Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adapta-

37­38, 51; Enron Corp., 1997 Energy Outlook

tions, and Mitigation, pp. 83­84.

(Houston: Enron Corp., 1997), p. 11; and World

Energy Council, 1995 Survey of Energy Resources

17. See Simon, part 1.

(London: WEC, 1995), pp. 32­35. To cover all the

conventional energies, uranium reserves and

18. It is assumed that fossil fuels are "nonre-

resources are equal to 84 years and 127 years of

newable" since "the world is currently using fos-

present usage, respectively, under a medium price

sil fuels 100,000 times faster than they are being

assumption, and under high prices potential

recreated by natural forces." James Cannon,

resources are estimated at approximately 450

"Clean Hydrogen Transportation: A Market

years at present consumption rates. Organization

Opportunity for Renewable Energy," Renewable

for Economic Cooperation and Development,

Energy Policy Project Issue Brief, April 1997, p.

Nuclear Energy Agency, and International Atomic

3. Is this bedrock assumption always right? The

Energy Agency, Uranium: 1995 Resources, Production

robust replenishment of supply behind the

and Demand (Paris: OECD, 1996), pp. 26­27, 32;

increasing reserve figures could be due to more

41