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For most of its

setting to reduce inefficiency and waste,

30 percent or more since the Industrial

given that human wants are greater than

Revolution, and the "warming potential"

scientific history

the resources to meet them.2 1 0

weighting of all six greenhouse gases has

C O2 has been

increased around 50 percent in the same peri-

considered an

od.2 1 3 Virtually all scientists believe that a

Global Warming: The Last   doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations

environmental

Challenge to Fossil Fuels?   in the atmosphere, estimated to occur over a

tonic.

70- to 150-year period, would increase global

The greatest threat to fossil fuels' market  average temperatures, other things being the

share in the 21st century comes not from same.2 1 4 Consensus evaporates, however, on

competing energies but from politicians and  the magnitude, distribution, and timing of

special interests professing concern about  warming and how much other emissions,

anthropogenic global warming. Accelerating  such as man-made sulfate aerosols or even

accumulation of CO (the chief industrial  conventional urban smog, might offset the

2

greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere is primar-  potential warming.2 1 5

ily the result of fossil-fuel consumption.

The controversy also extends to public

Fossil fuels, however, cannot be "reformulat-  policy. If harmful climate effects are possible,

ed"--nor their emissions "scrubbed"--to  are the costs of mitigation greater than those

remove CO . Mark Mills explains:

of a strategy of unabated economic develop-

2

ment and social adaptation (a wealth-is-

Carbon dioxide emissions are the

health approach)? If a mitigation strategy is

intended outcome of oxidizing the

followed, is the least cost strategy to trans-

carbon in the fuel to obtain energy.

form the energy economy to reduce carbon

There is thus no avoiding, or cleaning

sources or to substitute geoengineering tech-

up, carbon from the fuel source. This

niques, such as tree planting and seeding the

perhaps obvious, but oft ignored,

ocean with iron to increase carbon sinks? A

reality highlights the reason that

political question is the role of the United

restraints on carbon dioxide emis-

States in such efforts. While the United

sions are, by definition, restraints on

States is the leading emitter of greenhouse

the use of energy for society. There are

gases in the world, America vitally con-

thus only three ways to [significantly]

tributes to a robust carbon cycle. A recent

reduce carbon emissions: regulate

study found that North America is a net car-

C O2, raise the price of carbon fuels to

bon sink,2 1 6 which in the parlance of the cli-

discourage use, or offer non-carbon

mate change debate would make America

alternatives.2 1 1

and Canada a net "global cooling region."

Declining Estimates of Future Warming

For most of its scientific history CO has

2

The warming estimates, made by general

been considered an environmental tonic,

circulation climate models, of increased

enhancing photosynthesis to increase plant

anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentra-

biomass and agricultural yields.2 1 2 Carbon

tions in the atmosphere have declined in the

dioxide and other heat-trapping gases were

last 5 to 10 years. Whereas the estimate of

also credited with warming the earth to make

warming from a doubling of CO in the

it habitable--the incontrovertible "green-

2

atmosphere was often around 4°C in the

house effect" theorem. Carbon dioxide has

1980s models, estimates from newer models,

never been considered a pollutant that affects

such as the latest iteration at the National

human health like particulate matter, lead,

Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,

carbon monoxide, volatile organic com-

Colorado, are closer to 2°C.2 1 7The latest "best

pounds, or NO --all regulated by the EPA.

x

Atmospheric levels of CO have increased

guess" Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

2

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