<<  <  >  >>

But that is only half the story. The long-

One of the world's largest gas-fired com

-

awaited commercial viability of wind and

bined-cycle plants, the 1,875-megawatt

sun as primary energy sources has been set

Teesside plant in England, produces more

back by natural gas combined-cycle and

electricity each year than the world's mil-

cogeneration technologies. Natural gas

lions of solar panels and 30,000 wind tur-

technology today can produce electricity at

bines combined--and on fewer than 25

half the cost (or less) and with more flexi-

acres of land.

bility and reliability than power generated

The quantity differential partially

from well-sited wind farms on a tax-equal-

reflects relative capacity factors, which are

ization basis.1 0 7 The competitive gap with

around 95 percent for baseload gas com

-

solar power is much more pronounced,

bined-cycle plants and 20 percent to 40 per-

since solar power is triple (or more) the cost

cent for solar and wind that operate only

of well-sited wind. Simply put, the techno-

when the natural energy source is avail-

110

logical improvements in wind and solar

able. It also reflects siting prerequisites in

power have also occurred for traditional

light of natural conditions and consumer

fuels. In Europe, for example, an executive

demand. A wind site, for example, must

of Siemens AG recently reported that prices

have steady high winds, be away from large

of electricity from fossil-fuel plants have

bird populations, avoid slopes that may

fallen by an estimated 50 percent in the last

erode, and be in remote (and sometimes

five years alone.1 0 8

pristine) areas because of high noise levels

and poor aesthetics. Yet for economics'

This competitive gap, which environmen-

sake, wind farms need to be near popula-

talists once thought to be surmountable,

tion centers that have a power deficit

may persist for a long time. A joint study in

because of high transmission investment

1997 by the Alliance to Save Energy, the

costs and physical losses of electricity.1 1 1

American Council for an Energy-Efficient

Economy, the Natural Resources Defense

This combination works against many

Council, Tellus Institute, and the Union of

sites, making well-sited wind, ironically, a

Concerned Scientists concluded:

"depletable" energy option. So while ideal

wind sites may generate grid power at a cost

Although the cost of renewable elec-

only double that of new technologies using

tric generating technologies has

natural gas, other sites, for example, ones

declined substantially and their per-

from which the electricity must be trans-

formance has improved, the cost of

ported long distances, worsen this already

competing fossil technologies has

sizable cost disadvantage. Consequently,

The commercial

also fallen. In particular, the average

wind is not a generic resource like a conven-

viability of wind

price of natural gas paid by electric

tional energy. Wind sets up a growing eco-

and sun as prima-

utilities has been low (about

nomic and environmental conflict as more

$2.30/MMBtu) since the mid-1980s

and more sites must be tapped to meet

ry energy sources

and is widely expected to remain so

external political demands.

has been set back

for the next 10 years or longer.1 0 9

by natural gas

Other Renewables Also Problematic

The other basket of "renewable" alterna-

A factor as important as cost and relia-

combined-cycle

tives to fossil fuels--geothermal, hydropower,

bility for national energy policy is the enor-

and cogeneration

biopower, and fuel cells--may be even less

mous quantity disparity between gas-fired

likely to gain market share in the foreseeable

electricity (and other fossil alternatives) and

technologies.

future than are wind and solar power.

solar- and wind-generated energies. A single

Geothermal and hydroelectricity are

large combined-cycle gas plant can produce

more akin to conventional energies than to

more electricity than all the wind and solar

unconventional ones. Each has a long his-

facilities in the United States combined.

19