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birds emerged. The first-generation problems

Geothermal sites are often located in pro-

required a government-funded $100 million

tected, pristine areas and so create land-use

cleanup and repowering effort in California,

conflicts, and toxic emissions and deple-

the heart of the U.S. wind industry.9 8

tion can occur.1 0 1 Hydroelectric power is the

least environmentally favored member of

Oil companies did not diversify into the

the renewable energy family owing to its

wind industry as they had into solar power.

disruption of natural river ecosystems.1 0 2

Profitable sites and applications for wind

power were narrower even than those for

Nuclear power, although it is air emission

solar power, although wind power had one

free like renewable energy after plant con-

clear advantage over its renewable rival--it

struction, is less popular than hydroelec-

was substantially less uneconomic as a

tricity with mainstream environmentalists

source of electricity for the power grid.

and is rejected because of its risk profile

Nonetheless, the economics of wind power

and waste disposal requirements.1 0 3

remained relatively poor, particularly com-

The respective costs of wind and solar

pared with the economics of natural gas

have dropped by an estimated 70 percent

combined-cycle generation, which was

and 75 percent since the early 1980s.1 0 4

rapidly improving. The bankruptcy in 1996

Extensive  government  subsidies  for

Geothermal sites

of the world's largest wind developer,

research on and development and commer-

are often located

Kennetech, like the bankruptcy of solar

cialization of these technologies--much

industry leader Luz five years before,

greater than for other renewables and fossil

in protected,

marked the end of an era.

fuels on an energy production basis--have

pristine areas.

The heavy political promotion of wind

been a primary reason for this substantial

improvement.1 0 5 Mass production has result-

and solar power in the 1970s and 1980s

cannot be characterized as successful.

ed in fewer material requirements, more

Billions of taxpayer, ratepayer, and investor

product standardization, automated man-

dollars were lost, bearing little fruit except

ufacturing, and improved electronics.

for experience. But for proponents of alter-

Larger wind farms have also introduced

native energy, hope springs eternal. Two

economies of scale. Improvements in infor-

decades of "broken wind turbines, boon-

mation management, just-in-time invento-

doggle wind farm tax shelters, and leaky

ry techniques, and lower energy costs--fac-

solar hot-water heaters" are ancient history.

tors at work across the economy--have also

"The world today," the faithful believe, "is

been responsible for the reduced infrastruc-

already on the verge of a monumental ener-

ture cost of these two alternative energy

gy transformation . . . [to] a renewable ener-

sources. One recent study of wind tech-

gy economy."9 9

nologies concluded:

A survey of today's leading renewable

[Wind] costs have declined from

alternatives, however, demonstrates that this

around US$ 0.15­0.25 per kWh to the

predicted transformation is just as question-

US$ 0.04 to 0.08 per kWh today in

able now as it was two or more decades ago.

favorable locations. Technical devel-

Solar and Wind as Kyoto Energies

opments have been rapid and impres-

sive, most notably in the areas of

Wind and solar power are the two energy

increased unit size, more efficient

sources most favored by the environmental

blade designs, use of light-weight but

community to displace fossil fuels to help

stronger materials, variable speed

meet the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. Other

drives, and the elimination of reduc-

sources have met with greater environmen-

tion-gear mechanisms through the

tal ambivalence if not concern. Biopower is

introduction of electronic controls for

an air emission renewable energy source

frequency and voltage regulation.1 0 6

that can contribute to deforestation.1 0 0

18