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Figure 3

Resource Pyramid: Gas

Conventional

"Depletable"

Natural

Gas

Gasified Coal

Gas Hydrates

Nonconventional

Synthetic Gas

Infinite

Institute of Technology estimates that more

about the imminent depletion of fossil-fuel

than 6 trillion barrels of potentially recover-

reserves, fossil-fuel availability has been

able conventional oil and another 15 trillion

increasing even in the face of record con-

barrels of unconventional oil (excluding coal

sumption. World oil reserves today are

liquefaction) are identifiable today, an esti-

more than 15 times greater than they were

mate that moves the day of reckoning for

when record keeping began in 1948; world

petroleum centuries into the future.1 0

gas reserves are almost four times greater

The gas resource base is similarly loaded

than they were 30 years ago; world coal

with potential interfuel substitutions, with

reserves have risen 75 percent in the last 20

years.1 2 Thus, today's reserve and resource

advances in coal-bed methane and tight-sands

gas showing immediate potential and synthet-

estimates should be considered a mini-

ic substitutes from oil crops having long-run

mum, not a maximum. By the end of the

promise (Figure 3). If crude oil and natural

forecast period, reserves could be the same

gas are retired from the economic playing

or higher depending on technological

field, fossil fuels boast a strong "bench" of

developments, capital availability, public

clean and abundant alternatives. Even the

policies, and commodity price levels.

cautious Energy Information Administration

Technological advances continue to sub-

of the U.S. Department of Energy conceded

stantially improve finding rates and individ-

ual well productivity.1 3 Offshore drilling was

that "as technology brings the cost of pro-

ducing an unconventional barrel of oil closer

once confined to fields several hundred feet

to that of a conventional barrel, it becomes

below the ocean, for instance, but offshore

reasonable to view oil as a viable energy

drilling now reaches depths of several thou-

source well into the twenty-second century."1 1

sand feet. Designs are being considered for

drilling beyond 12,000 feet.1 4

Technological Advances and

Predictably, advances in production tech-

Increasing Resources

nology are driving down the cost of finding

Despite a century of doom and gloom

oil. In the early 1980s finding costs for new

5