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Figure 1

World Fossil-Fuel Reserves and Resources

2000

1884

1800

1600

1400

Proved Reservrves

P  ved Rese es

1200

ProbableeRResous ces

Pro  babl  esoure r

1000

800

600

400

230

200

200

114

63

45

0

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Coal

Sources: U.S. Department of Energy; Oil & Gas Journal; World Oil; Enron Corp.;

World Energy Council.

mentalists and some energy planners have

age of energy scarcity was upon us and that

failed to learn the lessons of the past.

the depletion of fossil fuels was imminent.4

The sixth section investigates the science

While some observers still cling to that view

of global warming and the economics of

today, the intellectual tide has turned

reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The

against doom and gloom on the energy

issue is important because many analysts

front. Indeed, resource economists are

believe that only by significantly reducing the

almost uniformly of the opinion that fossil

use of fossil fuels can we stop global warm-

fuels will remain affordable in any reason-

ing. The magnitude, distribution, and timing

ably foreseeable future.

of anthropogenic warming, however, contra-

Resources As Far As the Eye Can See

dict the 1980s and early 1990s case for alarm

about climate. Furthermore, the cost of dis-

Proven world reserves of oil, gas, and coal

placing fossil fuels with politically correct

are officially estimated to be 45, 63, and 230

renewable alternatives is so steep that the

years of current consumption, respectively

costs of preventing anthropogenic warming

(Figure 1). Probable resources of oil, gas, and

swamp the benefits.

coal are officially forecast to be 114, 200, and

1,884 years of present usage, respectively.5

Moreover, an array of unconventional

The Growing Abundance

fossil-fuel sources promises that, when

of Fossil Fuels

crude oil, natural gas, and coal become

scarcer (hence, more expensive) in the

future, fossil-fuel substitutes may still be

Only a few years ago academics, busi-

the best source fuels to fill the gap before

nessmen, oilmen, and policymakers were

synthetic substitutes come into play.

almost uniformly of the opinion that the

3