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No. 341

April 22, 1999

The Increasing Sustainability

of Conventional Energy

by Robert L. Bradley Jr.

Executive Summary

best, decades away from mass commercializa-

Environmentalists support a major phase-

tion. Meanwhile, natural gas and reformulated

down of fossil fuels (with the near-term excep-

gasoline are setting a torrid competitive pace in

tion of natural gas) and substitution of favored

the electricity and transportation markets,

"nonpolluting" energies to conserve depletable

respectively.

resources and protect the environment. Yet ener-

The greatest threat to sustainable energy for

gy megatrends contradict those concerns. Fossil-

the 21st century is the global warming scare.

fuel resources are becoming more abundant, not

Climate-related pressure to artificially con-

scarcer, and promise to continue expanding as

strain use of fossil fuels is likely to subside in

technology improves, world markets liberalize,

the short run as a result of political constraints

and investment capital expands. The conversion

and lose its "scientific" urging over the longer

of fossil fuels to energy is becoming increasingly

term. Yet an entrenched energy intelligentsia,

efficient and environmentally sustainable in

career bureaucrats, revenue-seeking politicians,

market settings around the world. Fossil fuels

and some Kyoto-aligned corporations support

are poised to increase their market share if envi-

an interventionist national energy strategy

ronmentalists succeed in politically constraining

based on incorrect assumptions. A "reality

hydropower and nuclear power.

check" of the increasing sustainability of con-

Artificial reliance on unconventional energies

ventional energy, and a better appreciation of

is problematic outside niche applications.

the circumscribed role of backstop technolo-

Politically favored renewable energies for gener-

gies, can reestablish the market momentum in

ating electricity are expensive and supply con-

energy policy and propel energy entrepreneur-

strained and introduce their own environmental

ship for the new millennium.

issues. Alternative vehicular technologies are, at

Robert L. Bradley Jr. is president of the Institute for Energy Research in Houston, Texas, and an adjunct scholar of

the Cato Institute. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 17th Congress of the World Energy Council

in Houston, Texas, in September 1998.