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Figure 1

Chinese Ballistic Missile Capability

Source: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response (Washington: Department

of Defense, 1997), p. 11

.

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under development with emphasis on

However, according to the Center for Defense

improved accuracy and guidance, increased

Information:

range, mobile launch platforms, solid fuel

technology, and multiple warheads."27

On January 25, 1995, Russian early

warning radar detected the launch of

Accidental  or  Unauthorized  Launches.

a U.S. scientific rocket off the Nor-

Although a deliberate full-scale Russian or

wegian coast. Although the Russian

Chinese attack is unlikely, the possibility of an

government had been notified of the

unauthorized or accidental Russian launch

launch weeks before, the news never

still exists. The NIE discounts the threat--call-

reached the Strategic Rocket Forces.

ing the risk of such a launch "remote."28

8