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United States from ballistic missile attacks,

Defense Donald Rumsfeld provided a

concluded:

sobering analysis of the nature of the

threat and the limitations of our abil-

Concerted efforts by a number of

ity to predict how rapidly it will

overtly or potentially hostile nations

change.23

to acquire ballistic missiles with bio-

logical or nuclear payloads pose a

Therefore, it seems unwise to dismiss the bal-

growing threat to the United States,

listic missile threat to the United States as

its deployed forces and its friends and

nonexistent and assume that NMD is not

needed.24

allies. These newer, developing

threats in North Korea, Iran and Iraq

Accidental and Unauthorized Launch by

are in addition to those still posed by

Major Nuclear Powers

the existing ballistic missile arsenals

Russian ICBMs and SLBMs. Despite the end

of Russia and China, nations with

which we are not now in conflict but

of the Cold War, limited-scale accidental or

which remain in uncertain transi-

unauthorized launches from Russia or China

tions. The newer ballistic missile-

are still possible. In terms of quantity and

A large and

equipped nations' capabilities will

technological sophistication, the most severe

sophisticated

not match those of U.S. systems for

threat to the United States remains Russian

accuracy or reliability. However, they

ICBMs and SLBMs. Table 1 illustrates the size

NMD system

would be able to inflict major

and capability of the Russian strategic arsenal.

could doom any

destruction on the U.S. within about

Although the end of the Cold War has greatly

chances of cordial

five years of a decision to acquire such

reduced tensions between the United States

a capability (10 years in the case of

and Russia, there is no guarantee that the

renegotiation of

Iraq). During several of those years,

threat of a deliberate Russian large-scale bal-

the ABM treaty.

the U.S. might not be aware that such

listic missile attack has completely passed.

a decision had been made.

Nevertheless, unlike SDI, NMD will not

The threat to the U.S. posed by

address the threat of a large-scale attack,

these emerging capabilities is broad-

which is significantly less likely in the post­

er, more mature and evolving more

Cold War world.

Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs. China is the only

rapidly than has been reported in

estimates and reports by the Intel-

potential adversary other than Russia that

ligence Community.22

currently has the capability to strike the

United States with land-based intercontinen-

tal ballistic missiles (as illustrated by Table 2

Although the administration has not

and Figure 1 ). According to the Department

renounced the NIE or formally endorsed the

of Defense (DoD): "China's missile force is

Rumsfeld Commission report, the Secretary

designed to serve as a strategic deterrent

of Defense recently acknowledged the contri-

against Russia and the United States." And,

bution of the commission and seemed to

"China increasingly sees ballistic missiles as

admit that the threat was more acute than the

important weapons for a regional conflict or

NIE posited:

use as psychological weapons."  25

We are affirming that there is a

However, according to the Natural

threat, and the threat is growing, and

Resources Defense Council, "China has only a

that we expect it will soon pose a dan-

handful of missiles able to go intercontinen-

ger not only to our troops overseas

tal distances with about 100 other missiles

but also to Americans here at home.

with ranges from 1800 to 4750 kilometers."26

Last spring the commission that

But the council also acknowledges that

was chaired by former Secretary of

"[m]ore advanced systems have long been

6