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Directly Perceptible Risks

Figure 1 can serve as a description of the behavior

of the driver of a single car going around a bend in the

road.  His speed will be influenced by his perception of

the rewards of risk; these might range from getting to the

church on time to impressing his friends with his skill or

courage.  His speed will also be influenced by his percep-

tion of the danger; his fears might range from death,

through the cost of repairs and loss of his license, to

mere embarrassment.  His speed will also depend on his

judgment about the road conditions--is there ice or oil on

the road?  How sharp is the bend and how high the

camber?--and the capability of his car--how good are the

brakes, suspension, steering, and tires?

Overestimating the capability of the car or the speed

at which the bend can be safely negotiated can lead to an

accident.  Underestimating those things will reduce the

rewards gained.  The consequences, in either direction,

can range from the trivial to the catastrophic.

The balancing act described by this illustration is

analogous to the behavior of a thermostatically controlled

system.  The setting of the thermostat varies from one

individual to another, from one group to another, from one

culture to another, and for all of these, over time.  Some

like it hot--a Hell's Angel or a Grand Prix racing driver,

for example--others like it cool--a Caspar Milquetoast or

a little old lady named Prudence.  But no one wants

absolute zero.1

Risk: An Interactive Phenomenon

Figure 3 introduces a second car to the road to make

the point that risk is usually an interactive phenomenon.

One person's balancing behavior has consequences for oth-

ers.  On the road one motorist can impinge on another's

"rewards" by getting in his way and slowing him down, or

help him by giving way.  One is also concerned to avoid

hitting other motorists or being hit by them.  Driving in

traffic involves monitoring the behavior of other motor-

ists, speculating about their intentions, and estimating

the consequences of a misjudgment.  Drivers who see a car

approaching at high speed and wandering from one side of

the road to the other are likely to take evasive action,

unless perhaps they place a very high value on their dig-

nity and rights as a road user and fear a loss of esteem

if they are seen giving way.  During this interaction

enormous amounts of information are processed.