Cato Institute
Policy Analysis
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Page 30
tested at very low nuclear yields--perhaps even at the
level equivalent to a few pounds of explosive.
15. Bill Gertz, "US Officials Suspect Russia Staged
Nuclear Test This Year," Washington Times, March 7, 1996,
p. A3; and Bill Gertz, "Perry Cites Evidence of Russian
Nuke Test," Washington Times, March 8, 1996, p. A8.
16. Hydronuclear experiments enable the development of
testing baselines, methodologies, tools, and procedures and
provide a focus for nuclear weapons designers to work
directly with engineers, technicians, and other special-
ists.
17. Simulations cannot be substituted because they are not
always capable of predicting one-point safety.  One-point
safety exists when there is less than one chance in a mil-
lion that an accidental detonation will have more than
four pounds of yield.
18. The need to be able to design new weapons was acknowl-
edged in the Clinton administration's Nuclear Posture Re-
iew.  In the opinion of the Clinton administration, the
CTBT does not prohibit either the development or the
improvement of existing nuclear weapons.  See "Message
from the President," p. 2.
19. Hecker, p. 84.
20. John F. Kennedy, Address of March 2, 1962, reprinted
in United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Publication 19, November 1963, p. 74.
21. For example, they wanted to know the effects of the
electromagnetic pulse--generated by a nuclear blast--on
sophisticated communications systems.
22. The term "first nuclear weapons states" will be used
instead of "declared nuclear weapons states" because the
latter term lost much of its relevance following the tests
and declarations of nuclear weapons status by India and
Pakistan in May 1998.  The first five declared nuclear
weapons states, whose weapons were openly acknowledged at
the time of the NPT's entry into force, are the United
States, the Soviet Union (now Russia), China, the United
Kingdom, and France.
23. The United States has received nonbinding assurances
from members of the North American and Western European
Group, of which it is a member, that it will serve contin-