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and engineers: the people who designed the devices in the

stockpile and participated in testing them were still on

hand and provided solutions for the problems that were

found.  According to one expert, those scientists and

engineers have been repeatedly humbled by creating designs

in which they had the highest confidence, only to see a

test make a mockery of their assumptions and calculations.

The designers know the designs in the stockpile well.

Their experience in testing and working with the designs

over the years has enabled the designers to understand the

subtleties of changes and their effects on the weapons.

The experience and understanding of the experts who

designed the current U.S. nuclear weapons have not been

well documented because the entire U.S. nuclear weapons

program was predicated on the absolute need for and abili-

ty to conduct testing throughout the life of the design.

Testing was viewed as essential to the development and

proof of nuclear weapons designs, to ensuring the relia-

bility of the stockpile, and to correcting any problems

that occur.  With such dependence on nuclear testing,

extensive documentation was unnecessary.  Although an

effort is now under way to document and archive the expe-

riences of designers, there is no way to be sure that all

of their pertinent knowledge is recorded.  Problems may

also develop, particularly relating to the aging of weapon

components, for which the designers' knowledge is of lit-

tle or no help.

Of the 85 remaining nuclear weapons designers at Los

Alamos and Livermore laboratories, only 35 have been lead

designers on a nuclear test.7   In the future, as those

experts retire and die, there will be no nuclear weapons

experts who have actually designed a stockpiled weapon or

have gone through the rigors and learning processes of

nuclear testing.

Data from Past Tests Are Inadequate

Once a design is tested, why can't that test history

provide sufficient data and understanding to enable scien-

tists to fix any problems that develop later?  The answer

is that past testing data can help but will not necessari-

ly suffice.  Some problems may develop for which no test-

ing data are relevant.  For example, the effects of aging

on weapons components and materials is unknown.  The heat

from radioactive materials may make weapons parts brittle,

an effect similar to the degradation of plastics under

prolonged exposure to sunlight.  Replacement parts are