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liferation of missiles armed with chemical or biological

agents becomes a more serious threat to the United States

and its allies in the future, it may be prudent to include

in the U.S. nuclear arsenal some warheads designed specif-

ically for the mission of destroying such agents either in

their storage areas or on incoming missiles.

Preserving the option of modernizing U.S. nuclear

weapons is also important in the context of other nations'

emerging defensive technologies.  We cannot now know what

means opponents may develop to render U.S. warheads or

delivery vehicles obsolete.  Such technological break-

throughs could necessitate a complete overhaul of U.S.

delivery systems and nuclear warheads.

New Delivery Systems Can Require New Warheads

Nuclear warheads are designed to be mated with spe-

cific delivery systems.  As aircraft and missiles age,

they must be replaced.  Furthermore, as adversaries devel-

op countermeasures, U.S. delivery systems must be improved

to ensure that they will be able to accomplish their mis-

sions.  The newer systems are likely to have more advanced

electronics, materials, performance criteria, and other

attributes--all of which affect the optimal design of the

weapons they deliver.  (It is possible to reverse the

process and to design delivery vehicles to the parameters

of existing warheads, but that could be more expensive and

might have a less than optimal outcome.)

It is possible to make some changes to warhead design

without testing.  However, for nuclear weapons to continue

to be deliverable by newer systems, it may be necessary to

change the weight, size, and shape of the warhead.

Without testing, the ability to significantly change the

parameters of U.S. nuclear warheads will be extremely lim-

ited.

Lack of Modernization Forecloses Safety Improvements

Think of the safety improvements to automobiles that

have resulted from evolving technology over the past

decade.  Advances in materials science, electronics, and

concept innovation have led to better crash proofing, air

bags, design principles, and so on.  Those improvements

could not have been introduced without actual testing.

Similarly, we can assume that nuclear weapons technol-

ogy will continue to advance and that new measures to make