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Table 1

Key Arguments in the CTBT Debate

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Test Ban Advocates

Test Ban Opponents

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Constrains modernization of nuclear

Constrains modernization of nuclear

weapons (modernization is bad)

weapons (modernization is vital)

Ends development of new nuclear

Ends development of new nuclear

weapons (new weapons are bad)

weapons (new weapons may be necessary)

Helps prevent proliferation

Has little or no impact on proliferation

Moves us toward nuclear disarmament

Moves us toward nuclear disarmament

(disarmament is good)

(disarmament is presently foolhardy)

A ban is verifiable (it freezes other nations'

A ban is not verifiable (if other nations cheat,

nuclear capabilities)

it does not freeze their nuclear capabilities)

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that the purpose of ending nuclear testing is to move sys-

tematically toward nuclear disarmament.  Most CTBT propo-

nents in the United States, as well as abroad, view the

treaty as a means of reducing the political and military

usefulness of nuclear weapons because the cessation of

testing will have two key effects: it will make moderniza-

tion of weapons designs risky, and it will reduce confi-

dence in the reliability of current weapons designs over

time.2

This paper begins with a discussion of reasons why

the CTBT--or any cessation of nuclear testing--would dimin-

ish confidence in the reliability and safety of U.S.

nuclear weapons.  It then outlines the reasons why a CTBT

is not verifiable, why alternatives to nuclear testing are

unproven and therefore risky, and why the CTBT will do

little or nothing to prevent nuclear proliferation.  (For

a summary of those arguments, see Table 1.)  It concludes

with brief discussions of the extraordinary powers of the

CTBT international bureaucracy and of U.S. public opinion

on testing.

The CTBT Would Constrain Nuclear Modernization

A central purpose of the CTBT is to take a step

toward nuclear disarmament by constraining the moderniza-