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No. 330

January 15, 1999

THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY

The Costs Outweigh the Benefits

by Kathleen C. Bailey

Executive Summary

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is now before

the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent.  The treaty

bans all explosive testing of nuclear weapons.

Advocates of the CTBT make several arguments in sup-

port of the treaty.  The reasons reduce to two points: the

ban will constrain the modernization and development of

nuclear weapons by the nations that already possess them,

and it will help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to

additional nations.  Both objectives are set out in the

CTBT's preamble.

Opponents of the CTBT are most concerned about one

issue: in the absence of nuclear testing, U.S. nuclear

weapons can be neither as safe nor as reliable as they

should be.  Those deficiencies will diminish the effective-

ness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.  While the treaty will

constrain the United States from modernizing and developing

weapons, it will be possible for other nations to cheat

with little or no risk of being caught because the CTBT

cannot be verified.

To resolve safety and reliability questions, the

Clinton administration has developed the U.S. Stockpile

Stewardship Program (SSP).  The SSP is intended to improve

knowledge about nuclear weapons to such an extent that it

will be possible to fix problems and design new weapons

without nuclear testing.  The SSP is extremely expensive

and technologically very risky.  Furthermore, it is unclear

whether the SSP will accomplish its goal of attracting,

training, and retaining scientists and engineers capable of

fixing future problems with current weapons and designing

new weapons.

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Kathleen C. Bailey is an author and defense analyst.