Cato Institute
Policy Analysis
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Page 13
What's more, U.S. threats of military intervention
helped harden the Kosovar Albanian demand for independence
from Yugoslavia.  That's because military threats conveyed
a contradictory message; that although U.S. policy was
officially opposed to independence for Kosovo, Washington
would not allow Belgrade to forcibly resist it.  The U.S.
threats also emboldened the KLA rebels.  As the New York
Times reported,
Recently, under pressure from Western govern-
ments, the Yugoslav forces have reduced larger-
scale attacks on rebel areas. . . . Now, howev-
er, some foreign diplomats say Serbian reluctance
to order soldiers to retake territory is leading
the rebels to assume they have little to fear
from government forces.  "Instead of calming
things down and letting us figure out how to get
everyone to the negotiation table, what we've
done is give the Albanian fighters a feeling of
euphoria," said a Western diplomat. . . . "This
makes them bolder, and it also makes other
Albanians want to join them."48
After that, the Clinton administration softened its
threats on the Yugoslav government and made an attempt to
reverse the perception that it favors the ethnic Albanian
side of the Kosovo dispute.  In July, the United States
and five European nations made their first public criti-
cism of the KLA, issuing a statement admonishing the
rebels and stressing that "violence is inadmissible and
will not solve the problem of Kosovo."49   But the Clinton
administration's actions told ethnic Albanians a different
story: The administration does consider violence "admissi-
ble."  In fact, U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke trav-
eled to Kosovo, met with the KLA, and legitimized its vio-
lence by offering its representatives a spot on the ethnic
Albanian negotiating team.  In stark contrast, Ambassador
Holbrooke snubbed an invitation to meet with Serbian
Orthodox Bishop Artemije, who leads a two year old peace
movement with a plan that would simultaneously ease ten-
sions in Kosovo and reduce the power of Slobodan
Milosevic.
Today, backed by UN Security Council Resolution 1199,
the Clinton administration is once again demanding that
Belgrade withdraw its internal security forces from Kosovo,
or face a NATO response.  But if NATO intervenes, it could
encourage the Kosovo conflict still further.  Indeed, if
intervention consists of a cruise missile attack, air
strikes, or the imposition of a no-fly zone over Kosovo,
the guerrilla forces of the KLA will be encouraged to con-