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Missouri
Mel Carnahan, Democrat
Legislature: Democratic
Took Office: 1/93
Grade: F
Mel Carnahan's two landslide gubernatorial election
victories (in 1992 and 1996) represent the biggest percent-
ages any Democrat has won in Missouri since 1968. He is
prohibited from serving a third term. Carnahan has governed
as one of the nation's most fiscally liberal governors. In
his first term he delivered on his campaign promise of a
huge tax increase--$310 million--to fund new spending on
education. In 1994 he successfully opposed the Hancock II
Amendment to strengthen the state's constitutional tax and
expenditure cap. Later, Carnahan supported a more moderate
ballot initiative requiring voter approval of all tax hikes
over $50 million, which was passed in August 1996. Despite
its loopholes, the original Hancock Amendment has forced
Carnahan and the legislature to rebate about $700 million in
surplus tax dollars in the last three years. However, it
has done little to restrain the growth of state government
under Carnahan. In his first four years in office, state
tax revenues rose from $5.5 billion in 1993 to $7.8 billion
by 1997, a 42 percent increase. Even after adjusting for
inflation, state tax revenue growth outpaced population
growth by 5.6 percent and personal income growth by 3.7 per-
cent. Carnahan has funded major expansions of education,
health care, and early childhood programs. To his credit,
Carnahan has successfully pushed through modest tax cuts
each of the last three years. However, in each case the re-
duction was not large enough to prevent revenues from ex-
ceeding the Hancock limit. Thus, the tax cuts represented
money that would have had to have been refunded anyway. In
an era when most states are reducing taxes, under Carnahan
Missouri seems to be one of the few states heading in a fis-
cally expansionary direction. Carnahan's fiscal liberalism
is reflected in his failing grade.
Score
Grade
Rank
Overall Fiscal Policy Score
35
F
44
Spending Score
34
D
39
Revenue and Tax Rate Score
35
F
46
Amount
2.3%
Average Annual Change in Real Per Capita Direct General Spending through 1996
0.5%
Average Annual Change in Direct General Spending Per $1,000 Personal Income through 1996
3.0%
Average Annual Recommended Change in Real Per Capita General Fund Spending through 1999
0.0%
Average Annual Change in General Fund Spending Per $1,000 Personal Income 1996-98
5.6%
Average Annual Change in Real Per Capita Tax Revenue through 1997
3.7%
Average Annual Change in Tax Revenue Per $1,000 Personal Income through 1997
-1.5%
Average Annual Recommended Change in General Fund Revenue Per $1,000 Personal Income through 1999
1.9%
Average Annual Change in Real Per Capita General Fund Revenue 1996-98
-0.1%
Average Annual Recommended Tax Changes as % of Prior Year's Spending through 1999
0.0
Change in Top Personal Income Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
1.25
Change in Top Corporate Income Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
12.3
1998 Combined Top Income Tax Rates (Personal plus Corporate) (*0.5)
0.0
Change in Sales Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (% points)
0.0
Change in Gas Tax Rate, proposed and/or enacted (cents per gallon) (*0.5)