<<  <  >  >>

Even the wisest

implies that proper organizational charts and

way to denigrate the idea that sectarian strife

meetings can stabilize broken countries and

was likely in Iraq should Saddam Hussein lose

American leader,

make order where there is none. This confuses

power. In congressional testimony prior to the

armed with the

a process with a policy, a bureaucratic mecha-

start of the war, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul

best plans, would

nism with power. Planning solves engineering

Wolfowitz explained that the Pentagon's post-

problems. Upgrading electrical grids, extend-

war requirements might seem low relative to

have struggled to

ing modern sewerage, and rebuilding schools

competing estimates offered by Eric Shinseki

implant a liberal

and hospitals--these things are easily planned.

and Ret. Army General Anthony Zinni, the for-

The management of foreign societies is anoth-

mer head of CENTCOM, because "there's been

order in which

er matter altogether.

none of the record in Iraq of ethnic militias

the Iraqi people

fighting one another."44 Weekly Standard editor

It is impossible to label the post-invasion

would easily

civil strife in Iraq as inevitable or to claim

Bill Kristol dismissed the notion "that the Shi'a

that things could not have gone better. But

can't get along with the Sunni and the Shi'a in

cooperate with

even the wisest American leader, armed with

Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic

one another in a

the best plans, would have struggled to

fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evi-

dence of that at all."45 Along similar lines,

democratic state.

implant a liberal order in which the Iraqi peo-

ple would easily cooperate with one another

Richard Perle, appearing on the Fox News pro-

in a democratic state. There was not then and

gram Hannity and Colmes, told viewers "I don't

is not now a plan sufficient to solve Iraq's

believe you will get civil war. . . . There are dif-

fundamental problem--the lack of popular

ferences, to be sure, among these groups, but

support within Iraqi society for an equitable

it's not like Bosnia. It's not as if they have been

division of power. People perceive that there

destroying each other for many years. They

haven't, and I don't believe that they will."46

is a lot at stake, and many are willing to fight

to achieve their goals.

Insufficient planning did not create these

As Aaron Wildavsky noted long ago, in gov-

happy thoughts or make the president accept

ernment, planning is basically a synonym for

them. Accurate information about the likely

politics.47 That is, planning aims to control

postwar situation was available--it was either

discarded or ignored. Ideology, combined with

future government decisions. But plans over

a healthy dose of wishful thinking and analyt-

some government activity are the province of

ical bias, trumped expertise.

all who have power over it, meaning that there

Of course, it's the president's job to settle

are lots of planners and a lot of plans, most

these disputes and embrace the correct policy

incompatible. When you build a house, there

before the time to act on them arrives. Bush

is one set of plans. When you build a nation,

and his national security advisor, Condoleezza

there are hundreds. And that is just in your

Rice, failed in this regard, allowing plans for a

government. The trick in politics is not having

short occupation with few ambitions to dom-

the right plans; it is having the power to imple-

inate until the occupation began, and then set-

ment them. And in societies our military occu-

tling on a longer occupation for which they

pies, the power of the United States is severely

circumscribed.48 The problem in Iraq, seen in

had not prepared. The president's failure to

referee his subordinates, however, is not a

this light, is that even if the United States gov-

structural deficiency in the U.S. government

ernment had aligned its own plans, various

but a managerial deficiency in the Bush

factions had other plans, mostly competing.

administration. No amount of bureaucratic

And their conception of their interest so dif-

rejiggering can make the president listen to

fered from America's and each others' that

the right people.

there was no unity to be had.

The experts who say more American plan-

Planning Is Not Power

ning would have saved Iraq confuse the power

The more important problem with the idea

to conquer foreign countries with the power

that planning could have saved Iraq is that it

to run them. The military gives us the former

8