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democrats.science.house.gov/Media/File/Comm

York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), estimates

docs/hearings/2007/full/17apr/burkett_testimo

that in 2010 the Protocol could cost between 0.1

ny.pdf.

and 2.0 percent of the GDP of Annex I countries. I

will assume that its cost is 0.5 percent of their

80. Goklany, "Climate Policy."

cumulative GDP, which is at the lower end of this

range. This translates to $165 billion (in 2003 dol-

81. Goklany, "Strategies to Enhance Adaptability,"

lars). See Goklany, "Climate Policy."

and Goklany, "Integrated Strategies."

68. Goklany, "Climate Policy."

82. Goklany, "Integrated Strategies."

69. Goklany, "Strategies to Enhance Adaptability."

83. Goklany, "Potential Consequences."

70. Indur M. Goklany, "Potential Consequences of

84. UNMP, Investing in Development.

Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Com-

pared to Other Environmental Problems," Technol-

85. In the long run, it could be argued that eco-

ogy 7S (2000): 189213, Goklany, "Integrated Strat-

nomic development should pay for itself.

egies"; and UN Millennium Project (UNMP),

Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the

86. William R. Easterly, The White Man's Burden: Why

Millennium Development Goals (New York: EarthScan

the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill

and UNMP, 2005).

and So Little Good (New York: Penguin Press, 2006).

71. UNMP, Investing in Development.

87. Table 7 suggests that annual aggregate deaths

due to malaria, hunger, and flooding could range

72. UNMP, Coming to Grips with Malaria in the New

from 4.4 million in 1990 to between 2 and 6 mil-

Millennium, Task Force on HIV/AIDS, Malaria, TB,

lion in 2085.

and Access to Essential Medicines, Working Group on

Malaria, 2005.

88. Milton Leitenberg, "Deaths in Wars and

Conflicts in the 20th Century," Cornell University

73. World Health Report 1999 (Geneva: WHO,

Peace Studies Program, Occasional Paper no. 29,

1999), chap. 4; and ibid.

3rd ed., 2006, http://www.einaudi.cornell.edu/pea

ceprogram/publications/occasional_papers/Death

74. Goklany, "Climate Policy."

s-Wars-Conflicts3rd-ed.pdf.

75. Calculated using UNMP, Halving Hunger: It

89. Goklany, "Strategies to Enhance Adaptability,"

Can Be Done, Task Force on Hunger (London:

and Goklany, "Climate Policy."

EarthScan and UNMP, 2005), p. 18.

90. Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on

76. UNMP, Halving Hunger; and UNMP, Investing

Climate Change (UNFCCC) specifies that its "ulti-

in Development.

mate objective . . . is to achieve . . . stabilization of

greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere

77. Goklany, "Integrated Strategies," and Goklany,

at a level that would prevent dangerous anthro-

Improving State.

pogenic interference with the climate system. Such

a level should be achieved within a time frame suf-

78. Goklany, "Saving Habitat."

ficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to cli-

79. See figure 6.10 from IPCC, Climate Change 2007:

mate change, to ensure that food production is not

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, http://www.

threatened and to enable economic development

ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-

to proceed in a sustainable manner." See: United

chapter6.pdf,(attributed to Richard S. J. Tol, "The

Nations, United Nations Framework Convention

Double Trade-Off between Adaptation and Miti-

on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/resource/

gation for Sea Level Rise: An Application of FUND,"

docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.

Mitigation Strategies for Global Change, forthcoming;

91. Goklany, "Strategies to Enhance Adaptability";

and Virginia Burkett, Testimony before the Com-

Goklany, "Potential Consequences"; and Goklany,

merce on Science and Technology, United States

"Integrated Strategies."

House of Representatives, April 17, 2007, http://