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for 1990. According to FAO, The State of Food

45. P. Martens et al., "Climate Change and Future

Insecurity 2004, the number of people suffering from

Populations at Risk from Malaria," Global Environ-

chronic undernourishment in the developing coun-

mental Change 9 (1999): S89-S107, and Arnell, et al.,

tries was virtually unchanged between 1990 and

"Consequences of CO2 Stabilization."

1992 and between 2000 and 2002 (going from 824

46. Mike Hulme et al, "Climate Change Scenarios

million to 815 million in developing countries

for Global Impact Studies," Global Environmental

between those two periods). According to WHO,

Change 9 (1999): S3-S19.

World Health Report 1995 (Geneva: WHO, 1995),

malaria killed 2 million in 1993 (compared to 1.12

47. Martin L. Parry et al., "Viewpoint. Millions at

million in 2001). I will use the 1.12 million figure for

Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats

1990. Thus, to the extent the ratio of deaths-to-pop-

and Targets," Global Environmental Change 11 (2001):

ulation at risk may have declined between 1990 and

181­83.

2001, future deaths due to malaria would be under-

estimated. Finally, there were 7,100 fatalities due to

48. Goklany, "Climate Policy."

floods, windstorms and waves/surges in 1990 and

an average of 7,500 for 2000­2004 (excluding deaths

49. See Paul Reiter, "From Shakespeare to Defoe:

due to the Christmas tsunami of 2004). Table 7

Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age," Emerging

assumes: (a) an estimate of 8,000 deaths in 1990 due

Infectious Diseases 6 (2000): 757­73; A. Murray Fallis,

to these extreme weather event categories, and (b) all

"Malaria in the 18th and 19th Centuries in

deaths for these categories are due to coastal flood-

Ontario," Canadian Bulletin of Medical History 1, no. 2

ing. Thus Table 7 underestimates the relative impor-

(1984): 25­38; and Ken Watson, "History of the

tance of malaria compared to the other threats,

Rideau Lockstations: Malaria on the Rideau,"

while overestimating future deaths due to coastal

http://www.rideau-info.com/canal/history/locks

flooding. Figures regarding flood-related deaths

/malaria.html.

come from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International

Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net, Université Catho-

50. Goklany, Improving State.

lique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.

51. Richard S. J. Tol, and Hadi Dowlatabadi,

61. Most integrated assessment models--Nordhaus'

"Vector Borne Diseases, Development and Climate

RICE/DICE, Manne et al.'s MERGE and Tol's

Change," Integrated Assessment 2 (2001): 173­81.

FUND--assume that the impacts of climate change

are linear or quadratic functions of global tempera-

52. Goklany, "Saving Habitat."

ture increases ( T), whereas Hope's PAGE assumes

that impact functions (I) take the form of a polyno-

53. Nicholls, "Coastal Flooding and Wetland

mial such that I = constant x Tn, where n is an uncer-

Loss," pp. 69­86.

tain variable whose minimum, most likely and max-

imum values are 1, 1.3, and 3 respectively. Thus, for

54. Ibid., p. 76.

the purpose of this analysis, assuming that impacts

depend on the square of temperature change would

55. Jonathan A. Patz et al., "Impact of Regional

seem to be conservative. Rachel Warren et al.,

Climate Change on Human Health," Nature 438,

Understanding the Regional Impacts of Climate Change,

no. 7066 (2005): 310­17.

Tyndall Centre Working Paper no. 90, 2006 (re-

search report prepared for the Stern Review), http:

56. Anthony J. McMichael et al., "Global Climate

//www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/

Change," in Comparative Quantification of Health Risks:

twp90.pdf.

Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected

Major Risk Factors (Geneva: World Health Organi-

62. Stern Review, Executive Summary, p. x.

zation [WHO], 2004), p. 1546. Emphasis added.

63. Ibid., pp. 156 and 158.

57. WHO, World Health Report 2002 (Geneva:

WHO, 2002).

64. Qualitatively, results for the fourth scenario

are no different from those shown for the three

58. This estimate excludes an estimated 0.51 mil-

scenarios in Table 9.

lion people who died from malaria but whose

deaths were attributed to underweight in the

65. Goklany, "Climate Policy."

report. See ibid.

66. T. M. L. Wigley, "The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4

59. See also Goklany, Improving State.

and Climate Implications," Geophysical Research

Letters 25 (1998): 2285­88.

60. This assumption is necessary because mortality

data for hunger and malaria are not readily available

67. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report (New

26