<<  <  >  >>

30. Parry et al., "Effects of Climate Change."

21. Indur M. Goklany, "Affluence, Technology

and Well-Being," Case Western Reserve Law Review

31. S. P. Long et al., "Food for Thought: Lower-

53 (2002): 369­90.

Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising

CO2 Concentrations," Science 312 (2006): 1918­21;

22. Indur M. Goklany, The Improving State of the World:

and Parry et al., "Effects of Climate Change."

Why We're Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable

Lives on a Cleaner Planet (Washington: Cato Institute,

32. Long et al., "Food for Thought."

2007). One indicator that, so far at least, has not

shown an improvement with wealth is total CO2

33. Francesco N. Tubiello, et al., "Crop Response to

emissions. Also, some environmental indicators, e.g.,

Elevated CO2 and World Food Supply: A Comment

air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and particulate

on `Food for Thought . . . ' by Long et al.," Science 312

matter, generally worsen initially as incomes increase

(2006)," European Journal of Agronomy 26, no. 3

before declining at higher income levels. See N.

(2006): 215­23. See Carter et al., "The Stern Review:

Shafik, "Economic Development and Environmen-

A Dual Critique."

tal Quality: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford

Economic Papers 46 (1994): 757­73; Gene E. Gross-

34. Parry et al., "Effects of Climate Change."

man, and Alan B. Krueger, "Economic Growth and

the Environment," Quarterly Journal of Economics 110,

35. Goklany, Improving State; and A. Ligi and J. Kaskey,

no. 2 (1995): 353­77; and S. Dasgupta et al., "En-

"Monsanto, BASF to Spend $1.5 Billion on Biotech

vironment during Growth: Accounting for Gov-

Seeds," Update 6, Bloomberg.com, March 21, 2007.

ernance and Vulnerability," World Development 34,

(2006): 1597­1611.

36. Parry et al., "Effects of Climate Change."

23. Indur M. Goklany, "Saving Habitat and Con-

37. Indur M. Goklany, "Relative Contributions of

serving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet," Bio-

Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive

Science 48 (1998): 941­53; and Rhys E. Green et al.,

Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and

"Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature," Science 307

Mitigation," Energy & Environment 14, no. 6 (2003):

(2005): 550­55.

797­822.

24. Goklany, Improving State.

38. Arnell, "Climate Change and Global Water

Resources," also uses the "10-year return period

25. Goklany, "Integrated Strategies."

minimum annual runoff " as a measure of water

availability. Even under this variation, climate

26. Goklany, Improving State; and US Bureau of

change relieves water stress in 2085 (compared to

the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States:

the "no-climate-change" condition). Hence, those

Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington: Government

results are not shown.

Printing Office, 1975), p. 77.

39. Indur M. Goklany, "A Climate Policy for the

27. Goklany, Improving State; and World Bank,

Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adap-

World Development Indicators 2002, CD-ROM.

tation?" Energy & Environment 16, no. 3-4 (2005):

667­80.

28. See, for example, Parry et al., "Effects of

Climate Change," p. 57. Generally, the adaptation

40. The high coastal population growth scenario

technologies available in these studies are from

assumes that coastal population grows twice as

the early 1990s or earlier vintages. Thus the food

fast as the general population, or, if populations

and hunger study doesn't include consideration

are projected to drop, it drops at half the pace of

of adaptations that may be possible through

the general population. See Nicholls, "Coastal

genetically modified crops.

Flooding and Wetland Loss," Table 6.

29. Since 1920, U.S. wheat and corn yields have

41. Ibid., p. 74.

tripled and quintupled, respectively, partly, if not

largely, due to technological changes. See National

42. Goklany, Improving State.

Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), "USDA-

NASS Quick Stats," http://www.nass.usda.gov:

43. Van Lieshout et al., "Climate Change and

8080/QuickStats/PullData_US.jsp. Similarly, total

Malaria."

cereal yields have multiplied by 2.5 in the develop-

ing countries since 1961. See Food and Agriculture

44. This author contacted various coauthors of

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), The

the van Lieshout et al. paper to obtain their

State of Food Insecurity 2004 (Rome: FAO, 2004).

results for populations at risk with and without

Much of these improvements would not be cap-

climate change, but to no avail.

tured using the methodology used in the FTA.

25