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If one believes

with climate change, that obligation cannot,

important environmental problem facing

and should not, be met through aggressive

the globe, unless present-day problems such

in a moral and

emission reductions at this time--"cannot"

as hunger, water-related diseases, lack of

ethical obligation

because the planet is already committed to

access to safe water and sanitation, and

to deal with

some climate change--and "should not"

indoor air pollution are reduced drastically.

because the threats that climate change

Otherwise, with respect to human well-being,

climate change,

would exacerbate can be reduced more effec-

it will continue to be outranked by these

that obligation

tively, not to mention more economically,

other problems and, with respect to environ-

through focused efforts to reduce vulnerabil-

mental well-being, by habitat loss and other

cannot be met

ity or through broader efforts to advance eco-

threats to biodiversity.

through aggres-

nomic development. Any such obligation is

Through 2085, human well-being is likely

sive emission

best discharged through efforts to reduce

to be highest under the richest-but-warmest

present-day vulnerabilities to climate-sensi-

(A1FI) scenario and lowest for the poorest

reductions at

tive problems that are urgent and could be

(A2) scenario. Matters may be best in the

this time.

exacerbated by climate change.

A1FI world for some critical environmental

indicators through 2100, but not necessarily

for others. Either focused adaptation or

Notes

broad pursuit of sustainable development

would provide far greater benefits than even

I am grateful to Professor Cornelis van Kooten,

the deepest mitigation--and at no greater

Nicholas Schneider, Jerry Taylor, and an anony-

mous reviewer for their thoughtful and thorough

cost than that of the barely effective Kyoto

reviews of earlier versions of this paper. As a

Protocol.

result, this paper is much improved. Any remain-

For the foreseeable future, people will be

ing errors, however, are my responsibility.

wealthier--and their well-being higher--than

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

is the case for present generations both in the

(IPCC), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and

developed and developing worlds and with or

Vulnerability (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University

without climate change. The well-being of

Press, 2001). See also Samuel Hitz and Joel Smith,

future inhabitants in today's developing

"Estimating Global Impacts from Climate Change,"

Global Environmental Change 14, no. 1 (2004):

world would exceed that of the inhabitants of

201­218.

today's developed world under all but the

poorest scenario. Future generations should,

2. William J. Clinton, State of the Union Address (1999),

moreover, have greater access to human capi-

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-svr/poli

tics/special/states/docs/sou99.html; and Cordis

tal and technology to address whatever prob-

News, "Reducing Global Warming Is Our Priority,

lems they might face, including climate

Say Chirac and Blair," November 19, 2004, on file

change. Hence the argument that we should

with author.

shift resources from dealing with the real and

3. Martin L. Parry (ed.), Global Environmental Change:

urgent problems confronting present genera-

Special Issue: An Assessment of the Global Effects of

tions to solving potential problems of tomor-

Climate Change under SRES Emissions and Socio-

row's wealthier and better positioned genera-

Economic Scenarios 14, no. 1 (2004): 1­99.

tions is unpersuasive at best and verging on

immoral at worst.

4. See, for example, Nigel W. Arnell et al., "The

Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the

Equally important, resources expended

Impacts of Climate Change," Climate Change 53

on solving today's climate-sensitive problems

(2002): 413­46.

and advancing sustainable economic devel-

opment will build human capital, advance

5. Irene Lorenzoni and W. Neil Adger, "Critique of

Treatment of Adaptation Costs in PAGE and

technology, and enhance the adaptive and

FUND Models," in Spotlighting Impacts Functions in

mitigative capacities of future generations.

Integrated Assessment, ed. Rachel Warren et al.,

If one believes that developed countries

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

have a moral and ethical obligation to deal

Working Paper no. 91, September 2006, p. 74 (pre-

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